Machine Translated by Google MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT & ENERGY DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY DIRECTORATE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE & ATMOSPHERIC QUALITY NATIONAL STRATEGY FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE APRIL 2016 1 Machine Translated by Google Table of Contents 1. 3 2. Introduction The reference framework of the Strategy 2.1 Objectives and guiding principles 6 2.2 Weather and climate issues 9 2.3 Economic situation and adjustment 2.4 11 Legislative and institutional framework 12 2.5 Implementation of strategy 13 3. Risk and vulnerability analysis 3.1 The impacts of climate change and the domestic adaptation deficit 14 3.2 Climate risk and vulnerability at the regional level 16 3.3 Extreme weather phenomena 19 3.4 First conclusions and intervention priorities 21 4. Sectoral Adaptation Policies 4.1 Agriculture and animal husbandry 22 4.2 Forestry 27 4.3 Biodiversity and ecosystems 30 4.4 Fisheries 36 4.5 Aquaculture 40 4.6 Water resources 40 4.7 Coastal zones 48 4.8 Tourism 50 4.9 Action 53 4.10 Infrastructure and Transport 56 4.11 Health 60 4.12 Built environment 4.13 63 Mining industry 4.14 Cultural 65 heritage 69 4.15 Insurance sector 71 5. Adaptation in practice 5.1 Prioritization and evaluation of adaptation measures 74 5.2 Features and categories of adaptive investments 5.3 Methods of 75 evaluating and prioritizing investments 78 5.4 Integrating adaptive policies into broader policies 80 5.5 The international (cross-border) dimension of adaptation 82 5.6 Strengthening adaptive capacity: Research, education and awareness 84 5.7 Consultation of social partners on adaptation 87 5.8 Risk prevention and management 87 5.9 European efforts to adapt to climate change 89 5.10 Adaptation to climate change and international security 90 Summary and conclusions 93 6. Bibliography 94 Appendices 1. Members of Science Writing Group 101 2. The costs of climate change and adaptation, in tables and diagrams Climate data 103 3. 108 2 Machine Translated by Google 1 Introduction In the light of a development scenario of the global economy with a strong presence of carbon and while at the same time the indications of the negative consequences of climate change are multiplying, the European Union launched in June 2007, with the Green Paper [COM(2007)354], its official contribution to the global debate on climate change adaptation. The Green Paper emerged from the need to address the unusual, extreme weather events that have hit European countries in the recent past (floods and forest fires, IPCC 2013) and is the beginning of a public consultation on policy measures that are necessary to reduce the consequences and costs of global warming. It examines the regional and sectoral impacts of climate change and outlines potential adaptation measures with a European dimension. It is emphasized that – according to the estimates of the Stern report1 – an average global temperature increase of 3-4°C entails additional adaptation costs (in infrastructure and building equipment) amounting to 1-10% of the total investment costs in OECD countries or $15-150 billion per year (0.05-0.5% of GDP). In the case of a 5-6°C average temperature increase, adaptation costs will increase exponentially with a simultaneous reduction in the effectiveness of adaptation investments (COM 2007). The White Paper [COM(2009)39] incorporates the results of the consultation and adopts a phased approach: phase 1 (2009-2012) in which the elaboration of a comprehensive EU strategic adjustment is completed, and phase 2 ( 2013 onwards) during which this strategy will be implemented. As the effects of climate change become more and more felt, European countries are already starting to design national strategies and implement the corresponding national adaptation plans, with priority in the sectors of health, agriculture, water resources and sea level ( see http://climate- adapt.eea.europa.eu/ - key EU information portal on climate change adaptation)2 . At the same time, as our experience accumulates about the possibilities of adapting to climate change, the difficulties of the necessary institutional adaptation are recognized. The reason is that the structure of the adaptation problem is completely different from that of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. While emissions mitigation policies have very long-term effects on the climate – one 1 Sir Nickolas Stern Report: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20130129110402/http://www.hm treasury.gov.uk/d/Executive_Summary.pdf 2 By 2014, according to the European Environment Agency (EEA 2014), 21 European countries had established a national adaptation strategy while 12 of them had already developed a national adaptation plan. 3 Machine Translated by Google typically a public good – the majority of adjustment policies will have relatively short-term effects on citizens' well-being – a typically private and peak good. It is therefore reasonable to expect state intervention and policy to protect public goods, such as the climate, but less obvious to expect a state initiative to undertake adaptation policies. If this were indeed the case, then 'autonomous' adaptation to the effects of climate change, that is, the autonomous adaptation of individuals (producers and consumers) through changes in production and consumption habits, would be the answer to climate change. However, a series of factors – uncertainty of the effects of climate change, but also of the effectiveness of adaptation measures – make the role of the state essential for the planning and implementation of adaptation actions. The Climate Change Impact Study Committee of the Bank of Greece (EMEKA) has assessed the expected – environmental, economic and social – impacts of climate change. Drawing cost data from the international literature, this first approach estimated the macroeconomic costs of adaptation, under the extreme climate conditions of the A2 emission scenario (IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios, 2000 and AR4, 2007). The analysis showed that adaptation measures in the period 2025-2050 correspond to 1.5% of GDP, in the period 2051-2070 to 0.9% of GDP and after 2070 to 0.1% of GDP. Cumulatively, adaptation to climate change can cost the Greek economy (until 2100) €123 billion (in 2008 prices) (EMEKA, 2011 and ch. 3.1, 3.2 of this text). Based on the above, it is imperative to plan and take appropriate adaptation measures to deal with the negative inevitable effects of climate change. In December 2014, the Ministry of Environment, Energy and Climate Change (currently the Ministry of Environment and Energy / ÿÿÿ), the Medical Biology Research Foundation of the Academy of Athens and the Bank of Greece (Bank of Greece), signed a memorandum of cooperation with the aim of: • Addressing the effects of climate change at country level with specific adaptation actions in all sectors. • Utilizing the experience of the Bank of Greece and the interdisciplinary Climate Change Impact Study Committee (hereafter EMEKA), which it supports, in matters of the financial and other impacts of climate change. Among other things, this cooperation concerned the composition of the text of the National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change (hereafter ESPKA). Thus, EMEKA, with the support of the Ministry of Finance and the contribution in principle of the Department of Climate Change and Atmospheric Quality of the Ministry of the Interior, drew up a draft ESPKA, which was submitted to a public consultation, the results of which were evaluated by an informal group in which they participated members of EMEKA, the Council of Ministers as well as officials of the Department of Climate Change and Atmospheric Quality of the Ministry of the Interior. 4 Machine Translated by Google Furthermore, the competent Department of Climate Change and Atmospheric Quality of the Ministry of the Interior enriched and edited the final form of the text. The names of the members of the scientific team (EMEKA, TtE), as well as the employees of the Department of Climate Change and Atmospheric Quality of the Ministry of Environment and Energy who contributed substantially to the formation of the ESPKA are listed in APPENDIX 1. This National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change sets the general objectives, guiding principles and means of implementing a modern effective and development adaptation strategy in the framework defined by the United Nations Convention on Climate Change, the European Directives and the international experience. The ESPKA is the first step for a continuous and flexible process of planning and implementing the necessary adaptation measures at the national, regional and local level and aspires to be the lever for mobilizing the capabilities of the Greek state, economy and wider society to deal with of the effects of climate change in the years to come. 5 Machine Translated by Google 2. The reference framework of the Strategy Section 2 presents the general reference framework of the ESPKA. The objectives are analyzed, the guiding principles for its writing are set out, the ESPCA is linked to the current macro-economic situation and the existing institutional decision- making framework for adaptation is outlined. 2.1 Objectives and guiding principles The primary purpose of this ESPKA is to contribute to strengthening the country's resilience to the effects of climate change. For this purpose, the conditions must be created so that the (public and private) decisions for the formation of the production and consumption fabric of the Greek society are taken with sufficient information and long-term targeting, facing the risks and making use of the opportunities arising from the climate change. The ESPKA is a text of strategic orientation with the aim of drawing up guidelines. As such, it does not analyze in depth the necessary sectoral policies, nor decide on the desirability of individual adaptation measures and actions at the local/regional level and does not attempt to prioritize the tentatively proposed measures and actions. These issues are the essence of the Regional Climate Change Adaptation Plans (RCAPs) which will specify the directions of the RAP, defining the immediate adaptation priorities at the local level. The ESPKA foresees an initial horizon of five years for the development of adaptation capacity and for the prioritization and implementation of a first set of actions. The significant uncertainty associated with climate change and its impacts, the onslaught of new information and developments, and the ever-revised views on the appropriate way to advance adaptation require ongoing assessment, learning, and specialized analysis. The ESPCA is an opportunity to formulate in our country a strategic approach to adaptation to climate change, setting in motion a continuous process of consultation, review, updating and realignment of the strategy. The main objectives of ESPKA are: 1. The systematization and improvement of the process of making (short-term and long-term) decisions related to adaptation 2. Linking adaptation to the promotion of a sustainable development model through regional/local action plans 3. The promotion of adaptation actions and policies in all sectors of the Greek economy with an emphasis on the most vulnerable 4. The creation of a monitoring, evaluation and updating mechanism of adaptation actions and policies 6 Machine Translated by Google 5. The strengthening of the adaptive capacity of the Greek society within from information and awareness actions Each country must include in its national priorities the anthropogenic intervention in the already existing and upcoming climate change and contribute to the international effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, it must protect itself accordingly and in a timely manner against the "warfare" effects of climate change and variability in order to mitigate the damage that cannot be avoided. Policies aimed at mitigating damage from the "residual" effects of climate change are described under the general name "climate adaptation" ("adaptation strategy" or "adaptation policy"). The international community has set as a tolerable threshold increase in the average temperature of the atmosphere of their planet 2 degrees C. However, as changes in the temperature of the atmosphere evolve, this increase is expected to be greater, especially if global action to reduce emissions delayed or only partially successful. Unfortunately, recent findings of the Intergovernmental Conference on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014) show that the 2nd C threshold is likely to be exceeded3 . Therefore, it is a matter of great importance for every country to shield itself against this uncertainty by developing adaptation policies to the expected climate change. The ESPKA does not discourage efforts to mitigate climate change through emission reduction policies, which is, and must remain, a primary objective for Greece in the context of its international obligations. In contrast, adaptation to climate change has multiple positive synergies with individual climate stress mitigation issues – particularly in the energy and water resources sectors where a clear separation of mitigation and adaptation measures often becomes difficult. Adaptation to climate change requires an integrated, interdisciplinary approach with cross-sectoral measures, which will be based on and implemented by specific national and regional institutions. In more detail, the guiding principles of ESPKA are: - Compatibility: the various policies and measures should not conflict with other strategies and priorities of the country's overall environmental policy and sectoral policies. - Scientific correctness and completeness: policies and measures should be scientifically substantiated based on up-to-date data, such as those pre- 3 While these estimates refer to a global level, on a smaller scale and especially for the Mediterranean region and the Greek territory, the increase in temperature is estimated to exceed 2 degrees Celsius, combined with an increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of the extreme weather events that accompany global change. 7 Machine Translated by Google they result from proven scientific processes in Greece and internationally. New data should be taken into account in performance evaluation processes of any policies and measures. - Participation and consultation: an important parameter for the successful completion of the strategic adaptation is the participation and consultation of all the parties involved, the administration, the scientific community, the productive bodies and the civil society. - Social acceptance: the adoption of measures and policies with as little economic/ social cost as possible, mitigation of regional inequalities and fair distribution of costs between social groups. - Development: planning that documents, even in the long term, development prospects. Adaptation policies should target the sectors of activity that are most vulnerable to climate change. Since they have a preventive nature, adaptation policies must be developed in a period of time prior to the manifestation of the consequences of climate change. For this reason, adaptation policies are included within the frameworks of other policies such as spatial planning, public investments, flood protection, etc. The adoption of adaptation policies within the general framework of other current policies has been significantly delayed in Greece. (See section 5.4). In order to reduce their costs and ensure the necessary financial resources, adaptation policies must be developed gradually and not over a short period of time. Because these policies are implemented by state initiative (public investment) or by state intervention (imposing specifications or conditions on private investment), their effectiveness is maximized when planning is based on long-term analytical studies and when relevant choices are decided after close cooperation with the agencies involved. The overall intensity of adaptation policies depends on the expected intensity of climate change. The more emissions mitigation measures are intensified and succeed at a global level, the lower the costs resulting from adaptation policies will be, while correspondingly adaptation policies may not be needed to the extent they were planned. Therefore, it is difficult to decide in advance the optimal strategy regarding adaptation policy in a country. In any case, however, the E SPKA must satisfy the following characteristics: - penetrate any current policy (completion), - to be based on long-term planning and correspondingly gradual implementation (planning horizon) with the simultaneous possibility of flexible adaptation to new data ('adaptive' adaptation strategy), - to have the optimal possible extent and size based on the expected risks from climate change (optimization), - to respond to the public feeling for justice and equity, prioritizing the most vulnerable areas and social groups in its measures, 8 Machine Translated by Google - to contribute to the strengthening of all aspects of our development process (modernization of infrastructure and networks, extroversion, smart specialization of regions and innovative banking and insurance products). In general, the means of implementing the ESPKA are: - Scientific research and documentation. Emphasis on scientific research with the aim of extracting the primary data required in order to lead to a more complete understanding of the problem of climate change and the sectoral effects, by species, sector and activity. - Monitoring the implementation of the strategy. Monitoring the implementation of the strategy for adaptation to anthropogenic climate change by creating a special monitoring mechanism and using appropriate indicators and tools. - The information of all involved. Informing the citizens and the parties involved about climate change, its effects on the natural environment and the daily life of citizens, as well as the benefit of a coordinated effort to deal with these effects, is the first step towards achieving the mitigation of " of residual" effects but also of mitigating the phenomenon in general. - Consultation and dialogue. The effects of climate change will affect all productive activities at local and national level. The government should establish a permanent framework of consultation and dialogue with productive and social actors and local societies. Therefore, adaptation is a long-term and continuous process that will develop at all levels of the economy and society and requires close cooperation and coordination between the various actors involved. Effective adaptation measures require early planning and a strategic approach. 2.2 Weather and climate issues 2.2.1 International and European situation Global and European "operation" in Weather, Climate and Water issues is financed through international inter-state meteorological organizations based on the quota of each state's GDP in the total annual budget of the organizations. This unique example of global scientific and business collaboration provides the best scientific and business result at the lowest possible joint cost. Since 1949, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has been the official organization of the United Nations that condenses the joint global research and operational effort on Weather, Climate and Water. Thus, together with the WFP and the United Nations Environment Program (United Nations Environmental Program-UNEP) has been jointly supported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) since its inception (1988). 9 Machine Translated by Google All global warnings and documented Weather and Climate information for natural disasters against weather or climatic hazard, for the safety of all transport and the conduct of military operations and space launches as well as all scientific publications worldwide are based exclusively on the Global Climate Observing System ( Global Climate Observing System-GCOS), which has been developed based on the principles established by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This System is made up of the individual Satellite systems of the EU METSAT (European Meteorological Satellites) and the ESA (European Space Agency) and the National Observing Systems of the Member States of the WMO which have been created and developed based on globally accepted technological procedures determined by the WFP and after the cooperation of the States. The annual cost of operating and further developing the GCOS in Europe exceeds 2.5 billion euros. The Global Weather and Climate Observation and Prediction System is not static, since Earth observation and numerical weather and climate prediction technologies have developed rapidly since World War II (supercomputer technologies, weather radar, meteorological satellites, earth observation satellites, etc.). a.). In order to address the modern, evolving and common European needs in satellite observation and numerical weather and climate prediction, Europe established two transnational- international meteorological organizations for common European modeling for the dry season in 1972 (European Center for Medium Weather Forecast-ECMWF, Law 1770/1988) and the common European satellite observation in 1986 (European Meteorologi cal Satellites-EUMETSAT, Law 2205/1994). The European Conventions of Meteorological Organizations and Research on Climate Services have been integrated since the late 1990s into the European design with the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security-GMES ) now called Copernicus. Copernicus highlights the European Meteorological Organizations ECMWF and EUMETSAT, and the European Space Organization, Law 3308/2005, while GCOS is used as an implementation tool in two more United Nations conventions Framework Convention of Climate Change - UNFCCC Law 2205/1994 and United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification-UNCCD Law 2468/1997) as well as in support of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change). The European Commission, within the framework of the Global Framework for Climate Services of the WMO, after a special programmatic agreement, assigned the design and implementation of the research procedures for the provision of central services in the field of climate and Climate Change, to the European Meteorological Organization which has responsibility for the research and operation of numerical forecast models (European Center for Medium Weather 10 Machine Translated by Google Forecast-ECMWF). Central Climate services include products for the following sectors: Water Management, Energy, Agriculture, Forestry, Health, Tourism, Infrastructure, Insurance, Climate Natural Disaster Risk Assessment, Transport Safety and Coastal Management zones. http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/what-we-do/copernicus/copernicus climate- change-service. 2.2.2 Greek situation In Greece there is a network of special meteorological stations from which observations are collected. Based on these observations, meteorological maps are drawn up by the National Meteorological Service (NMS) and particularly useful (both regular and extraordinary) meteorological bulletins are issued. Although the primary purpose of EMY is weather forecasting, at the same time it also gives valuable information about weather and climate, to government services as well as important sectors such as transport, agriculture, etc. The EMY was founded in 1931 and became an official member of the PMO in 1935, with the aim then of unifying the respective activities and infrastructures and with the responsibility of operating a single meteorological observation network. At the beginning of the 21st century, EMY, for the effective meteorological support of the ever-increasing needs of the National Defence, the National Economy and the Social Whole, designed a program to modernize almost all of its activities, the implementation of which is in progress. The acquisition of a national GCOS climate data base that is constantly updated and is open and electronically accessible to public bodies, universities, research centers and the citizen is considered essential. In this context, according to EMY, the country should focus on the unified national GCOS observation network and the unified national climate database, continuous improvement and provision of reliable forecasts and other climate services such as seasonal forecasts and climate forecasts, living especially in participations and collaborations at the European level (ECMWF, COSMO consortium). 2.3 Economic Conditions and Adjustment Greece has already been slow to develop a national adaptation strategy. And unfortunately, this period is experiencing an unprecedented economic recession. A crisis as deep as the current one certainly entails severe financial and other constraints on the implementation of adjustment options. However, adaptation planning and action cannot wait. Specific adaptation measures targeted at vulnerable groups and the risks they face can be taken. Immediate benefits can be achieved through low-cost measures that reduce vulnerability and exposure to current climate variability, thereby protecting human health and livelihoods and increasing social and economic well-being. These measures also lay the foundation for addressing future trends in exposure and 11 Machine Translated by Google vulnerability to climate change, but also in terms of extreme weather conditions. At the same time, adjustment measures can contribute to the economic recovery effort. Given that adaptation actions largely entail the undertaking of investment programs, the financing of which in the general European context is very likely not to present insurmountable difficulties, an effective adaptation program can be a driving force for the development of the national economy in a regional as well as national level. It should be emphasized that such a program can achieve a double benefit (or double dividend), protection from climate change, the economic/environmental benefit, and strengthening of economic development in our country, the development benefit. ESPKA should identify the adaptation actions that can and should be started immediately. These include actions that yield a direct and significant benefit regardless of the range of impacts of climate change - such as e.g. saving water and improving environmental management –. Priority should be given to adaptation policies that have significant effects on employment and growth, (e.g. the use of green infrastructure, green roofs) and can contribute to adaptation in the form of flood risk reduction and climate mitigation. of this island. 2.4 Legislative and institutional framework The axes and tools of the ESPKA need to be integrated into all aspects of public administration and the wider public sector. Therefore, the overall institutional framework should guarantee its implementation. It should be noted that the European Directives on all relevant issues (indicative: reform of the Common Agricultural Policy, water resources management, flood risk assessment and management, protected areas NATURA 2000, Eurocodes for the safety of constructions/infrastructures, public health, public access to information, etc.) co-shape the framework for the implementation of the ESPKA in our country. Nevertheless, it is necessary to institutionalize the ESPKA, in order for the priorities and axes it sets to be included horizontally and to be integrated into all the individual policy areas in the country. Also, it is necessary to institutionalize the procedures for the preparation and institutionalization of the Regional Plans for Adaptation to Climate Change (PESPAKA). In particular, it is required to institutionalize: the content/specifications of the PESPKA and the process of approval, implementation and monitoring of their application. The institutionalization of climate adaptation in Greece presupposes the appropriate organization and interconnection of the existing institutions and working groups, so as to achieve the integration of the EPA in the individual policies in the best possible way. 12 Machine Translated by Google For this purpose, it is proposed to establish a National Council for Climate Change under the coordination/chairmanship of the Ministry of the Interior, with participants from the Ministries of the Interior, Health, Finance, Economy, Development and Tourism, Infrastructure, Transport and Networks, Rural Development and Food , Environment and Energy, National Defense (which is headed by the E.M.Y.), the Local Self-Government of Grade A & B (KEDE, ENPE), the business world, professional associations, environmental NGOs, the scientific community , etc. The exact way, the Council's operating procedures, its powers, the way of monitoring the implementation of adaptation policies, their updating based on the constantly changing economic, social, technological, climatic, etc. conditions should also be be determined, through appropriate institutional arrangements. In addition, both for the prevention and for the management of the risks involved in climate change and variability, the recommendation within the Ministry is proposed. Environment and Energy Department of Adaptation to Climate Change, which will be under the Directorate of Climate Change and Air Quality of the General Directorate of Environmental Policy and will have continuous cooperation with Civil Protection. Also, it is necessary to institutionalize a mechanism to monitor and support the implementation of both the ESPKA and the PeSPKA. 2.5 Implementation of the strategy As already mentioned in section 2.1, the ESPKA is the basis for the further specialization of adaptive policies and actions for each of the thirteen Regions of the country. Based on the particularities of the regional units of the country, it is planned to prepare vulnerability assessments for the systems, economic sectors and population groups with a perspective of at least until 2050, on the basis of which the selection of the most important adaptation measures will be made, as indicated by business area in chapter 4 below. The vulnerability analysis, the prioritization and selection of measures and actions, the time planning and the investigation of their financing / implementation will be the main axes of the PESPKA. The same applies to the implementation of indicators and other tools for monitoring progress and implementing adaptation measures. Funding for adaptive investments and policies will be supported mainly in the Public Investment Program. Given the current situation, the implementation of adaptive investments will depend to a large extent on the ability of the entities to draw funds from international financial sources (eg European Investment Bank) and European Funds. Especially the implementation of the Operational Programs of the Partnership Agreement (ESPA 2014-2020) is a golden opportunity for the implementing bodies to attract financing funds for the Plans. 13 Machine Translated by Google 3. Risk and vulnerability analysis 3.1 The effects of climate change and the domestic deficit pro adaptation The report of the Council of Ministers (EMEKA, 2011) on the effects of climate change highlighted the wealth of natural resources available to our country as well as the dangers that threaten its natural and human environment. It is a country with an extremely long coastline, approximately 16,300 km (about 1/3 of the circumference of the planet), of which approximately 1,000 km are areas of high vulnerability to climate change. According to the above report, the vulnerability lies in the risk of a rise in the average sea level in our country, which is estimated to range between 0.2 and 2 meters by 2100. Of course, the vulnerability of the coasts is not only determined by the risk of a rise in the average sea level and extreme wave conditions, but also by other local factors, tectonic, geomorphological, etc. Of the total coastline of the Aegean Sea, about 58% is a coast with high vulnerability to the estimated developments. The consequences of both long-term changes in sea level and temporary extremes affect many sectors of the economy, including tourism, land use and transport. The total cost due to anthropogenic changes in sea level amounts to several millions of euros per year, as is thoroughly analyzed in the individual chapters. The environment of Greece has great biodiversity and different climatic characteristics, which are due to the interaction between the weather systems on the one hand and the complex topography and the percentage distribution of land and sea on the other. The country has enough rainwater and it should be properly managed. The total volume of water received by the country per year amounts to an average of 115 billion cubic meters, a volume comparable to other European countries. The reduced availability of water in the country's rain shadow is becoming more pronounced, not only due to the improper management of water resources but also due to extreme climatic conditions, such as that of 1989-90, when rainfall decreased by about 40%. Based on the models for calculating the anthropogenic intervention in the climate under the two extreme climate change scenarios analyzed in the relevant sections of the study, it is expected that by the end of the 21st century rain will decrease between 5% and about 19%, respectively, at the territory level . It also shows that by the end of the 21st century the air temperature will increase between about 3.0 °C and 4.5 °C, respectively. In general, the simulations predict significant changes in many climate parameters, such as humidity, cloud cover, etc. Of interest, with regard to the use of Renewable Energy Sources (RES), is the expected increase in average incident solar radiation 14 Machine Translated by Google throughout the territory, which is projected to increase between 2.3 W/sq. m. and 4.5 W/sq. m., as well as the increase in annual wind intensity by 10% towards the end of the 21st century. From the above study it also emerged that, even in the case of intermediate scenarios, it is expected that in continental areas the number of days in which the maximum temperature will exceed 35 35-40 days in theCperiod will be2071-2100 greater bycompared The to the present. An even greater increase (about 50 days in the territory) will be noted in terms of the number of days with a minimum temperature above 20 degrees, the number of days with night frost is expected C (tropical to decrease nights). Insignificantly, contrast The especially in Northern Greece (decrease by up to 40 days) . Moreover, the rise in temperature will result in an increase in the duration of the vegetative period by 15-35 days. A major impact of rising temperatures is the increasing demand for electricity for cooling in the summer. In particular, in the lowland mainland of Greece there will be an increased need for cooling up to 40 extra days a year during the period 2071-2010, while in the island and mountainous regions the increases will be smaller. A positive aspect of climate change is the reduced energy demand for heating predicted for the winter period. Changes are also expected in extreme precipitation values. In Eastern Central Greece and NW Macedonia, the maximum amount of water that precipitates in a period of up to 3 days is expected to increase to a percentage of up to 30%, while in Western Greece it is expected to decrease to a percentage of up to 20%. In contrast to flood periods, the largest increases in the duration of dry periods will occur in the eastern mainland and Northern Crete, where 20 additional dry days are expected by 2021-2050 and up to 40 additional days in 2071-2100. Climate change is expected to significantly increase the number of days with extremely high fire risk, by 40 days in 2071-2100 across Eastern Greece from Thrace to the Peloponnese, while smaller increases are expected in Western Greece. More generally, the effects for all sectors of the national economy that were examined in the report of the Bank of Greece (EMEKA, 2011) are negative and, in many cases, extremely negative. The effects e.g. in fir, beech and pine forests are significant, while the inflation of costs due to the increase in the number and extent of forest fires is also substantial. In addition, a decrease in species abundance and biodiversity in general is expected. It is estimated that climate change, based on its effect on the evolution of the tourist euphoria index until the end of the century, will have significant effects on Greek tourism, which are mainly found in the temporal and regional redistribution of tourist arrivals in our country, therefore and tourist receipts. Revenues from the tourism sector are an important economic resource of the country, which is why long-term strategic planning is required with the aim of upgrading the country's tourism product in the context of evolving anthropogenic climate change. 15 Machine Translated by Google The consequences of climate change on the built environment, transport, health, mining and other sectors are also significant. From the study of the Ministry of Finance (EMEKA, 2011) it follows that it is necessary to design a specific adaptation policy for all sectors. It should include a revised foreign policy regarding the directions that interest our country. As far as economic assessments are concerned, specialized studies were prepared for three scenarios: The most unfavorable scenario in terms of the intensity of anthropogenic climate change corresponds to the absence of any action to reduce the anthropogenic emissions of the gases that cause it and was characterized in the study as the No Action Scenario. In the case of this scenario, it is estimated that the GDP of Greece will decrease, on an annual basis, by 2% in 2050 and by 6% in 2100. The total cumulative cost of the No Action Scenario for the Greek economy, for the period up to 2100, expressed as a reduction of base year GDP, amounts to €701 billion (at constant 2008 prices). The next step in the present study was determined as a Mitigation Scenario, according to which Greece continuously and drastically reduces greenhouse gas emissions, in the context of a corresponding global effort, with the result that the average temperature increase will be limited to 2o C. The total cumulative cost of the Mitigation Scenario, for the time period up to 2100, expressed as GDP loss, is equal to €436 billion (constant 2008 prices). That is, the total cost in the case of the Mitigation Scenario is €265 billion less than that of the No Action Scenario and therefore the mitigation policy reduces the cost of inaction by 40%. Finally, in order to mitigate the damages from climate change, it is necessary to implement an adaptation policy, which is foreseen by the Adaptation Scenario. In this case, the GDP of Greece will show a decrease of 2.3% and 3.7% in the years 2050 and 2100 respectively and the adjustment cost is estimated to be equal to €67 billion. However, adaptation measures do not eliminate all damages due to climate change, they only limit them. The total cost to the Greek economy of the residual damages due to climate change was estimated to be €510 billion (constant 2008 prices), cumulative until 2100. The total cost to the Greek economy under the Adaptation Scenario is the sum of the to those who bring to the economy the adaptation measures and the costs due to the limited damages due to climate change. Thus, the total cost of the Adaptation Scenario was estimated equal to €577 billion (constant 2008 prices), cumulative until 2100 (see Annex 2, the costs of climate change and adaptation in tables and diagrams). 3.2 Climate risk and vulnerability at the regional level The total estimates of damages from climate change, per economic activity, as estimated in the EMEKA study, are presented in the last line of the following table 1: "DAMAGE/ECONOMIC ACTIVITY in million Euros" (EMEKA, 2011). These losses must be apportioned to each geographic region to obtain some indication of the vulnerability of 16 Machine Translated by Google of each region to climate change based on the relative intensity of its economic activities. Since climate change is expected to cause losses mainly in productive activities, a reasonable basis of apportionment is the relationship between production corresponding to a specific activity in a region and the total production from all activities in the same region. Yay andij = Therefore, the ratio can be used as a basis for apportionment where Yj Yj the total output in region j =1,…13 and Yij the output of activity i in region j. This ratio was approximated, because there is no data from ELSTAT or another reliable source for production by activity sector and region, based on the ratio of total production in the region to total national production and the share of employment in production activity i in the region district j (Source: ELSTAT labor force survey). Table 1 "DAMAGES / ECONOMIC ACTIVITY million euros" (EMECA, 2011) presents the distribution of damages by activity and sector based on the above approach, while the following table 2: "DISTRIBUTION OF VULNERABILITY BY REGION AND SECTOR" prioritizes the damages by activity and sector, with 1 the smallest loss and 13 the largest. These estimates are a first approximation given the time frames of the present study and the resources available for it. For strategic planning purposes an approach to determining vulnerability would be to define three levels of vulnerability e.g. low (X) 1-3, medium (M) 4-7 and high (Y) 8-13 and to rank the regions by vulnerability and activity. In agriculture e.g. the regions of CENTRAL MACEDONIA, PELOPONNIS, WESTERN GREECE, THESSALIA, EASTERN MACEDONIA AND THRACE and CRETE show high vulnerability. Another approach would be to calculate the total damage from climate change in each region (last column of table 1) relative to the value added in each region. Vulnerability based on this approach is presented in table 3: "DISTRIBUTION OF VULNERABILITY BY REGION". 17 Machine Translated by Google TABLE 1: DAMAGES/ECONOMIC ACTIVITY BY REGION AND SECTOR in MILLION EUROS (EMECA, 2011) Geographical Region Ex. Post Total Prost. Value Agriculture Forestry Fisheries Water supply Tourism Health Z/PA EAST Industry Structure Environment times Damage (2011) MACEDONIA AND 105,246 3,747 0,857 25,938 15,276 1,518 2,128 32,876 3,274 190,859 7216,00 0,026449 THRACE KENTRIKIS MA 169,858 6,048 1,382 133,897 31,543 3,870 9,212 145,160 12,906 513,876 24992,00 0,020562 KEDONIA WEST MAKE 33,845 1,205 0,275 348,744 3,496 1,078 1,021 24,133 1,226 415,023 4021,00 0,103214 DONIAS EPIRO 40,196 1,431 0,327 7,146 4,209 1,193 1,626 26,660 2,624 85,413 4055,00 0,021064 THESSALIA 110,471 3,933 0,899 16,246 19,136 2,113 2,150 48,175 4,250 207,372 8812,00 0,023533 IONIAN ISLANDS 31,899 1,136 0,260 0,000 0,685 0,782 1,477 41,447 0,854 78,539 3098,00 0,025352 OF WESTERN GREECE 114,731 4,085 0,934 0,000 9,359 1,998 3,616 53,965 4,522 193,211 8555,00 0,022585 MAINLAND GREECE 79,861 2,843 0,650 172,094 13,514 1,834 3,036 68,592 2,501 344,926 7984,00 0,043202 ATTICA 35,889 1,278 0,292 160,317 113,300 13,901 57,696 429,395 52,979 865,046 88921,00 0,009728 PELOPONNISOS 117,335 4,178 0,955 55,721 3,282 1,933 2,875 45,973 2,685 234,936 7755,00 0,030295 NORTH AEGEAN 19,077 0,679 0,155 0,000 2,185 0,603 1,055 17,745 1,000 42,501 2592,00 0,016397 SOUTH AEGEAN 29,047 1,034 0,236 48,506 15,998 1,914 2,054 69,599 2,672 171,060 5747,00 0,029765 CRETE 95,545 3,402 0,778 31,181 11,018 2,264 3,053 81,280 3,506 232,028 8623,00 0,026908 Totals 983,000 35,000 8,000 999,790 243,000 35,000 91,000 1085,000 95,000 TABLE 2: DISTRIBUTION OF VULNERABILITY BY REGION AND SECTOR Mining Industry Built Geographical Region Agriculture Forestry Fisheries Water supply Transportation Tourism Health Environment EASTERN MACEDONIA 9 9 9 4 10 5 6 4 8 AND THRACE CENTRAL MACEDONIA 13 13 13 8 12 12 12 12 12 OF WESTERN MACEDONIA 4 4 4 11 4 3 1 2 3 EPIRO 6 6 6 2 5 4 4 3 5 THESSALIA 10 10 10 3 11 10 7 7 10 IONIAN ISLANDS 3 3 3 1 1 2 3 5 1 of Western Greece 11 11 11 1 6 9 11 8 11 MAINLAND GREECE 7 7 7 10 8 6 9 9 4 ATTICA 5 5 5 9 13 13 13 13 13 PELOPONNISOS 12 12 12 7 3 8 8 6 7 NORTH AEGEAN 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 SOUTH AEGEAN 2 2 2 6 9 7 5 10 6 CRETE 8 8 8 5 7 11 10 11 9 18 Machine Translated by Google TABLE 3: DISTRIBUTION OF VULNERABILITY BY REGION Total Prost. Geographical Region Z/PA Vulnerability Damage (Z) Value (2011) (PA) EASTERN MACEDONIA 190,859227 7216,00 0,026449 8 AND THRACE CENTRAL MACEDONIA 513,875714 24992,00 0,020562 3 OF WESTERN MACEDONIA 415,023342 4021,00 0,103214 13 EPIRO 85,412628 4055,00 0,021064 4 THESSALIA 207,372312 8812,00 0,023533 6 IONIAN ISLANDS 78,539272 3098,00 0,025352 7 of Western Greece 193,210767 8555,00 0,022585 5 MAINLAND GREECE 344,925957 7984,00 0,043202 12 ATTICA 865,046080 88921,00 0,009728 1 PELOPONNISOS 234,936493 7755,00 0,030295 11 NORTH AEGEAN 42,500782 2592,00 0,016397 2 SOUTH AEGEAN 171,059590 5747,00 0,029765 10 CRETE 232,027837 8623,00 0,026908 9 3.3 Extreme weather events The study by the Bank of Greece (EMEKA, 2011) demonstrated that changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events will be one of the main effects of climate change for the Greek area with subsequent negative effects on the vulnerability of societies and ecosystems with exposure them to environmental hazards. More specifically, heat waves are very likely to become more frequent with longer duration and intensity. Fewer severe cold events are expected, however, occasional severe cold spells will continue to occur well into the second half of the 21st century. The summer drought is expected to increase further, leading to longer dry periods and pressures on water resources in areas with already increased vulnerability. At the same time, high-intensity rainfall is expected to become more frequent in the next 70 years, with the consequence that in urban areas, flash floods, due to intense local rainfall, will become more and more frequent. Changes in these extremes are expected to particularly affect us such as agriculture, fisheries, human health, water resources, biodiversity, ecosystems as well as infrastructure, transport and energy. Adaptation to climate change in terms of extreme events is therefore part of the adaptation strategies to improve the resilience of these sectors and is taken into account in the proposed strategies. 19 Machine Translated by Google In this sense, Community Directive 2007/60/EC on the assessment and management of flood risks urges member states to draw up Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMs) for vulnerable areas based on Flood Risk Maps at basin level my drinking water runoff. Studies have already been announced by the Special Water Secretariat for flood risk management in five water departments of the country. But in addition to adaptation measures by sector, especially for extreme phenomena, early warning is absolutely necessary. It is therefore recommended to develop, at the national and regional level in Europe, integrated climate services for Greece within the framework of the European ones. Provision of central European services for climate change is currently implemented by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (http://www.copernicus.eu/main/climate-change), a partnership of the European Commission with the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Also European support services for climate change adaptation strategies are provided by the online platform CLIMATE ADAPT (http://climate- adapt.eea.europa.eu/) of the European Environment Agency. Public services related to adaptation issues should be developed in such a way as to facilitate and promote interaction and cooperation between users, private and public actors in order to design effective adaptation measures which should: - provide easy access to meteorological and hydrological observations, meteorological and climate forecasts and products, focusing mainly on climate change adaptation; - facilitate the production of timely and accurate warnings for extreme events at national/regional level, - provide up-to-date data on past, present and future climate trends; - facilitate the promotion of qualitative analyzes of the current climate and future forecasts of climate change in governments, countries, municipalities, businesses as well as for research purposes, - provide and reinforce the use of adaptation tools. A necessary first step in achieving these goals is the organization and development of a unified climate observation system and a national climate database. The continuous operation of such a climate knowledge base will be an excellent source of documented time series of climate variables from the beginning of the 20th century to the present. These time series will in turn document the predictability of the models for the continuous updating of the climate change adaptation strategy. 20 Machine Translated by Google 3.4 First conclusions and intervention priorities The preceding vulnerability analysis is a first attempt to quantify and prioritize the expected climate risks in the Greek territory. It is clear that priority must be given to those sectors which are predicted to be most affected by climate change, as well as to prevent those effects which cause the greatest cost to the economy. As it emerged from the relevant analyzes (EMEKA, 2011), the sector that is expected to be most affected by climate change in Greece is agriculture, while the effects on tourism will also have major consequences for the entire economy and household income. and in coastal systems. The water resources sector is also of particular importance, affecting both agriculture and water supply. Therefore, the implementation of adaptation policies must be focused on the above areas and the implementation of appropriate actions must be planned in time, in order to reduce the expected negative effects. It is also considered appropriate to consider maintaining strategic reserves of basic food and water to meet the basic needs of the country's population in the event of large-scale extreme weather events such as, for example, prolonged drought. 21 Machine Translated by Google 4. Sectoral Adaptation Policies Taking into account the risk and vulnerability analysis, this chapter explores, in general terms, the available adaptation technologies and policies by sector / sectoral policy. In particular, in this chapter, the sectors that are expected to be most affected by climate change in Greece have been selected and investigated, and for each sector, as far as possible, the alternative adaptation options based on their main characteristics are indicated, and the possible actions and measures. It is noted that there is no exhaustive description of the actions/measures. Given that the ESPCA is a text of strategic orientation with the aim of drawing up guidelines, this chapter does not decide on the feasibility of individual actions and adaptation measures at the regional/local level and does not attempt to prioritize the tentatively proposed measures and actions both at the level sector, as well as at regional/local level. The final selection, prioritization and scheduling of appropriate actions and measures constitute the content and essence of the thirteen (13) PeSPKA that are about to be drawn up based on the particularities of each Region. In the above context, each PESPKA will prioritize based on the regional vulnerability analysis and the quantification of expected climate risks, both the areas of taking measures and implementing actions as well as the actions/measures as such that will finally be selected. For each selected sector as well as for the selected actions/ measures it will also evaluate every available element (eg existing management plans, monitoring and implementation programs, etc.). It will further determine the implementing bodies, financial means, etc. 4.1 Agriculture and animal husbandry Agricultural production is a sector of activity that will be significantly affected by climate change, as the type, quantity and quality of agricultural products are highly dependent on the climate. The climatic variables that mainly affect crop productivity are air temperature, precipitation, the intensity and duration of exposure to solar radiation, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, as well as the duration and intensity of extreme events. In addition, the degradation of agricultural lands due to the maintenance or increase of the desertification phenomenon is expected to play an important role. 22 Machine Translated by Google The detailed estimates of the effects of climate change on agricultural production are presented in the study of the Bank of Greece (EMEKA, 2011), where the Livestock sector is not covered. These effects differ according to the type of crop. Significant differentiation was also found between the 11 climate zones examined, with the most positive effects being found in Northern and Western Greece and the most negative in Southern, Eastern and insular Greece. Of particular importance for our country is the in-depth investigation of the effects of climate change, and therefore the identification of adaptation measures, in traditional crops of significant economic and social interest, such as olive growing and viticulture. The need for adaptation measures follows directly from the economic valuation of the impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector by the end of the century, which range from about 3% to 13% for the two emission scenarios below. The RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 scenario according to which the average temperature increase will be 1.4o C for the period 2046-2065 and 1.8o C for the period 2081-2100 and the RCP 8.5 scenario according to which the average temperature increase will be 2o C for the period 2046- 2065 and 3.7o C for the period 2081-2100). The estimate of only part of the annual adaptation costs in the agricultural sector (irrigation and protection projects) amounts to approximately 72 million euros, an amount that almost exclusively concerns public expenditure. However, the cost- benefit analysis is not specific to the agricultural sector, which will be possible to carry out with a fairly high degree of accuracy, when there is full clarification of the measures, as they are set out below. Action 1. Acquiring innovative knowledge and disseminating it to trainers and final recipients (agricultural professionals). The action includes the collection of research findings by research bodies, their exploitation through the development of specific adaptation strategies and manipulations and their dissemination to the final recipients. Measure 1.1. Creation of a database of research findings on the effects of climate change on agriculture and livestock and adaptation at national and international levels. The base will be accessible to anyone interested. Measure 1.2. Inclusion of agriculture and livestock adaptation programs to climate change in national research priorities. The main criterion of effectiveness will be the number of funded programs and the number of publications produced. Measure 1.3. Dissemination of research and technology findings to final recipients (educators, social partners, decision-making centers, agricultural professionals). Dissemination means are conferences, educational programs and seminars, print, electronic material, etc. Effectiveness indicators: number of programs and seminars, educational material produced. 23 Machine Translated by Google Action 2. Promote the planning of the Regions based on vulnerability levels and new data. It is imperative to draw up Sustainable Rural Development Programs at the Region level, with the mandatory integration of actions to adapt to climate change. Measure 2.1. Incorporating the consideration of climate change adaptation issues into the Regions' rural development programs. The inclusion will be a condition for the approval of the above programs. Effectiveness indicator: number and evaluation of adaptation actions in the individual programs. Action 3. Establishment or improvement of existing systems for recording (monitoring) critical parameters, based on new knowledge about the effects of climate change on the components of the production system. Recording and preparedness systems are necessary to assess potential threats to the agricultural and livestock sector. Systems must be designed flexibly to adapt quickly to new situations. Measure 3.1. Strengthen research in the field of interaction between climate change, plant biology and pathogens. This includes research on potential disease carriers. An efficiency indicator is the number of approved research programs and the number of publications. Measure 3.2. Strengthening research in the field of interaction between climate change, animal physiology, pathogens and pests. This includes research on potential disease carriers. Performance indicators: the number of research programs approved and the number of publications. Measure 3.3. Establishment/improvement of a national zoonoses registration system (observatory) and dissemination of information to final recipients. Efficiency indicator: the number of records per year on a case-by-case basis. Measure 3.4. Establishing/improving a national system (observatory) for recording phytopathogenic organisms, insects and weeds and disseminating the information to the final recipients. Efficiency indicator: the number of records per year on a case-by-case basis. Measure 3.5. Establishment/improvement of a national system of recording (observatory) levels of surface water and underground aquifers (feedback with actions for Water Resources). Efficiency index: the number of records on an annual basis as the case may be. Measure 3.6. Establishment/improvement of a national recording system (observatory) of threatened or endangered species of the plant and animal kingdom (feedback with Biodiversity actions). Efficiency index: the number of records on an annual basis as the case may be. 24 Machine Translated by Google Measure 3.7. Establishment/improvement of a national recording system (observatory) of the degree of pasture degradation and desertification of the Greek territories. Efficiency indicator: the number of registrations on an annual basis per Region. Action 4. Establish or improve existing systems for recording critical parameters based on new knowledge about the effects of climate change on livestock production system components. Recording and preparedness systems are necessary to assess the potential threats to productive animals of various production systems. Systems must be designed flexibly to adapt quickly to new data. Performance indicators: the number of approved programmes. Measure 4.1. Measures to deal with microbial and non-microbial agents causing disease in animals, as well as disease vectors. They include: a) Protection of productive animals from these agents with preventive hygiene measures and/or appropriate treatment, and b) Study of living conditions (resistance to extreme temperatures) and resistance of microbes and non-pathogenic agents for more effective treatment . Measure 4.2. Study of the reaction mechanisms of animals to extreme temperatures in terms of metabolism, physiology in general and their health (e.g. food consumption, liver function, immune system response, mortality, infectious diseases, resistance to thermal stress, etc. ), as well as their reproductive (estrus occurrence, conception rates, oocyte development rate, embryo growth rate, fetal mortality, etc.) and productive capacity (milk production, milk chemical composition, growth rate, etc.) and measures to deal with them. All of the above require strengthening of national research and collaborations with abroad. Measure 4.3. Adapting the systems of housing and management of productive animals under the new environmental conditions shaped by climate change so that there is no negative effect on the well-being of farmed animals. Measure 4.4. Adaptation of production systems to the new data so that they are technically feasible, economically viable, environmentally acceptable and without negative effects on animal welfare. For these issues, strengthening of national research and wider collaborations with foreign research bodies is required. Performance indicators: number of programs approved. Action 5. Sustainable management of natural resources. It includes extensive actions for the sustainable management of soil, water resources and biodiversity. 25 Machine Translated by Google Measure 5.1. Measures of sustainable management of land resources. They include: a) Protection against erosion with appropriate cultivation practices (plowing at isolevels, reduced tillage, plant layers, alternation of corrosive soils with non- corrosive crops, etc.), b) Protection against the degradation of the soil structure by compression (systems reduced soil treatment), c) Maintenance/increase of the organic matter that decomposes faster due to increased temperatures (avoid burning of stubble, incorporation of plant residues, organic fertilizers), d) Avoidance of salinization (use of good water quality and correct irrigation technique, lubricated lubricants, application of desalination techniques). The implementation of the above will be carried out with continuous updates of the final recipients (see Measure 1.3 above) and with the provision of incentives. Measure 5.2. Sustainable water resources management measures. They include: a) investigating the limitation of the use of upper limits in the areas cultivated with water-bearing plant species, b) The use of varieties with a reduced biological cycle, c) The rationalization of irrigation according to the actual needs of the plants, d) The adoption of more efficient irrigation systems, e) The minimization of water transport losses through effective maintenance of the existing collective irrigation and drainage networks. In addition, they include measures that also fall under the chapter of water resources management, such as f) creation of riparian buffer zones with vegetation, as well as g) construction of anti-flood works in areas adjacent to rivers or lakes. The implementation of the above (a) - (d) will be carried out with continuous updates of the final recipients (see Measure 1.3 above) and with the provision of incentives. Measure 5.3. Measures for sustainable management of biodiversity in agricultural ecosystems and pastures. Maintaining and increasing biodiversity in agricultural ecosystems will strengthen their ability to adapt to climate change. They include: a) Protection and conservation actions plant genetic resources in Genetic Material Banks and in situ. In particular: j) Organization of a National Plant Genetic Resources Conservation System in Georgia. In this context, support with infrastructure and personnel of the Genetic Material Bank of Thessaloniki and creation of regional decentralized Banks in cooperation with the A.E.I. of Agriculture, ii) Revision/improvement of the registration system of varieties in the National Catalog of Varieties, iii) Active participation in European and International Networks. Efficiency indicators will be the number of taxa that will be recorded in the various collections and the number of Networks in which the competent bodies will participate. b) Expansion of organic farming systems/integrated management with the aim of limiting the extinction of species of the plant and animal kingdom (native flora, pollinators, predatory insects) by establishing incentives based on efficiency indicators. c) Promotion of agroforestry systems (agroforestry, forest-pasture, agro- forest-pasture (feedback with the Biodiversity Sector). 26 Machine Translated by Google Measure 5.4. Sustainable pasture management measures. They include: a) Protection from overgrazing and undergrazing by determining their grazing capacity, b) maintaining and increasing the natural flora with plants of suitable varieties that show better adaptability to the new environmental conditions. The implementation of the above will be carried out with continuous updates of the final recipients (see Measure 1.3 above) and with the provision of incentives. Efficiency indicator: the number of farmers who adopted the above practices on an annual basis. Action 6. Changes in biological material and cultivation techniques. They include actions aimed at creating new varieties (excluding genetic modification) and adapting cultivation techniques to climate change. All require strengthening of national research and collaborations with abroad (feedback with Measure 1.2 above). Measure 6.1. Understanding the mechanisms of plant behavior (cultivars and weeds) in conditions of lack of water, increased temperature and increased CO2 concentration. Measure 6.2. Creation of new varieties resistant to biotic and abiotic stresses by exploiting domestic genetic material (feedback also with Measure 4.3 above). Measure 6.3. Changes in cultivation techniques and the selection of crops due to increased temperatures. Indicative: a) shifting of the establishment dates for annual crops, later for winter crops and earlier for spring crops, b) Limitation of cold-loving species in the southern and lowland areas and expansion of thermophilic ones (e.g., olive, olive, citrus fruits, etc.) further north and at higher altitudes, c) Regulation of the time and frequency of other cultivation techniques (fertilization, irrigation, plant protection, etc.). Measure 6.4: Selection and selection of local genetic material (varieties, populations, etc.) suitable for cultivation in specific areas under conditions of climate change Action 7. Climate change disaster risk management. It basically involves adapting and expanding agricultural production insurance for damage from extreme weather events not currently covered (eg, high temperatures, drought, floods). Efficiency indicators: the number of producers compensated due to extreme weather phenomena non. 4.2 Forestry The health, stability and growth potential of forest ecosystems is particularly sensitive to climate change, given that mitigation practices such as irrigation are operationally and economically unprofitable. 27 Machine Translated by Google Given the long time involved in forest management, the negative impact is inevitable. The direct, but mostly indirect, contribution of forest ecosystems to the provision of multiple goods and services is vital for almost all production sectors, as they contribute to mitigating the effects of climate change on both the natural and the built environment. The prioritization of actions to adapt forest management to forest ecosystems with the aim of limiting the negative effects on the economic and social structure is, due to limited resources, of vital importance for the well-being of Greek society. The General Secretariat of Civil Protection (GPP) provides a daily map with fire risk forecasts for all of Greece (http://civilprotection.gr/el). The GPP, as a body of the Central Administration, with the main task of coordinating the bodies involved in the whole spectrum of risk management from the manifestation of disasters, also issued the no. prot. 2195./3-04-2015 its document (available on the website http:// civilprotection.gr/el/ekcyklioi) on the subject: "Civil Protection planning and actions to deal with risks due to forest fires during the fire fighting season 2015". In the above document, the roles and responsibilities of all involved bodies in projects, actions and measures to deal with risks due to forest fires are determined with absolute clarity and coordination instructions are provided. Action 1. Acquisition and utilization of innovative knowledge. Effectiveness indicators: rate of practical applications. Measure 1.1. Prioritize forestry research in the context of climate change by funding research institutions, setting priorities, annual evaluation and dissemination of results. Measure 1.2. Disclosure of all types of data resulting from publicly funded forest ecosystem studies (as long as there is no intellectual property issue). This will help to avoid repetitions, thus reducing the waste of human and financial resources. By posting these data, which currently do not exist or are minimal, there will be control by the entire scientific community, while at the same time the data will be used to draw up more complete management plans adapted to the upcoming climate change. Action 2. Ensuring biodiversity of forest ecosystems Effectiveness indicators: impact on the robustness and quality production of multiple products and services from ecosystems. Measure 2.1. Classification of protected areas to give higher care to ecosystems with thermophilic and drought-tolerant species and protection of those at risk from climate change. Measure 2.2. Selection of varieties of forest species for planting or favoring species of natural regeneration, resistant to the expected drier and warmer environment 28 Machine Translated by Google vallon as well as extreme weather conditions. Use of wider plant associations in reforestation to reduce soil water competition and application economy. Measure 2.3. Compilation and implementation of studies by region for forest complexes and not only for forests, aimed at improving the composition and architectural structure of forest ecosystems, taking into account the level of vulnerability. These will aim to preserve biodiversity at the level of genetic diversity, diversity of plant and animal species, diversity of ecosystems and natural landscapes. This goal can be achieved by the application of special crop cuttings, more intense than in the past, to limit the competition to the desired species. Measure 2.4. Taking measures to identify and control invasive alien species (weeds). Action 3. Sustainable management of natural resources Efficiency indicators: quantity and quality of products and services produced. Measure 3.1. Creation of sub-horticultural forest stand structures preferably, with a mix of species, avoiding deforestation for increased biodiversity and ecosystem stability. At the same time, however, care should be taken to manage the subsoil vegetation in order to optimize the relationship between production - usable water and runoff. Measure 3.2. Adaptation of forestry interventions to create thinner forest stands, able to produce with limited soil moisture, higher temperatures and respond to extreme weather events to. Measure 3.3. Adaptation of understory vegetation management with clearings and controlled grazing to reduce competition for soil moisture in trees as well as the risk of fires. Measure 3.4. Implementation of rational grazing of forest-pasture ecosystems (grazing load equal to grazing capacity) to optimize biodiversity and the production of multiple products and services. Action 4. Limit fires Efficiency indicators: number of fires, burned area. Measure 4.1. Compilation of forestry (recording of land uses, composition of vegetation and ownership status) that will also limit fires related to encroachment on public land. Measure 4.2. Modernization of the legislative framework for prevention, rev damage assessment from fires but also for extinguishing them. 29 Machine Translated by Google Measure 4.3. Care should be taken so that within 10 days after the fire the most erodible burned areas are sown with cool-living grasses so that during the first critical period after the fire the soil is protected and stabilized. With this intervention, the need to build costly hydrological projects is limited, erosion and flooding are avoided and the balance of usable water is improved. Measure 4.4. Greater emphasis should be placed on prevention, which is also the most economical, ensuring accessibility, limiting fuel with cultivation interventions and controlled grazing. Measure 4.5. Modernization of forest firefighting equipment, installation of warning systems and software for rapid and seamless evacuation of areas, training to avoid human casualties and restoration of natural ecosystems. Measure 4.6. Agricultural forestry interventions, combined with controlled grazing to limit the flammable understory, the main source of fire initiation and spread. Action 5. Production of usable water Efficiency indicators: Quantity and quality of produced water Measure 5.1. Management of natural ecosystems to optimize usable water production. Measure 5.2. Construction of retaining dams for transported materials and water dams to normalize water runoff and limit erosion and flooding. Measure 5.3. Construction of dams and underground enrichment projects drones. 4.3 Biodiversity and ecosystems The proposed actions and measures for biodiversity aim to preserve and/or restore the adaptability of the natural environment, through the reduction of anthropogenic pressures on ecosystems and species of flora and fauna, where this is required. To determine the main actions and individual measures, data from the Report of the Climate Change Impact Study Committee (EMEKA, 2011) were used, the specific objectives for the prevention and reduction of impacts on biodiversity due to climate change, as defined in National Strategy for Biodiversity website http://www.ypeka.gr/ Default.aspx?tabid=237&language=el-GR#biodiv) as well as the results of research and management programs (availableand for specialized public in 30 Machine Translated by Google studies, such as the report on the assessment of the vulnerability of Attica's wetlands to climate change and an action plan (EKBY, 2014). Basic problems identified in the effort to define specialized measures for the "adaptation" of Greece's biodiversity to climate change are the creation of significant gaps in the existing knowledge about biodiversity, but mainly the lack of scientific evidence regarding the assessment of the vulnerability of the types of ecosystems and species of flora and fauna at a national level. Action 1. Improving knowledge about Greece's biodiversity and the impact of climate change on it and ecosystem services. The purpose of the Action is the collection of existing information and, if possible, the completion of knowledge about the biodiversity of Greece, and the effects of climate change on it, both at the level of ecosystems and species. An additional purpose of the Action is to seek information on the effects of climate change and on ecosystem services, as well as to fill identified data gaps, with the aim of determining the vulnerability of biodiversity and assessing their response to expected climate changes . The result of this action will be the creation of a dynamic database that will gather the available information both for the research activity related to the effect of climate change on biodiversity, as well as the results of ecological models that will summarize the vulnerability of species and ecosystems in distinct climate change scenarios. Measure 1.1. Creation of a Database with the results of research and management programs in relation to the impact of climate change on biodiversity In the first stage, available biodiversity data registered in various databases will be used, e.g. Min. of Environment and Energy, Nature and Biodiversity Web Site. Subsequently, a database will be created with the possibility of continuous enrichment. The database will record the results of completed research and management projects related to the effects of climate change on aspects of biodiversity (eg LIFE). The database will be accessible to all interested parties (scientists, researchers, Forestry Departments, Management Agencies, etc.). Monitoring indicators: Number of new records in the Database on an annual basis by Region and by biodiversity element. Measure 1.2. Inclusion of biodiversity adaptation programs in climate change in national research priorities Strengthening research on adaptation of biodiversity elements to climate change through national research programmes. 31 Machine Translated by Google Monitoring indicators: the number of funded programs, the number of publications and announcements produced at conferences or conferences on an annual basis. Measure 1.3. Risk assessment and creation of vulnerability prediction models All recorded/expected impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystems are gathered (Step 1), their vulnerability to these impacts is investigated (Step 2), a subset of impacts of particular importance (main threats) is identified, which and is selected for further analysis (Step 3), and finally the vulnerability of ecosystems and biodiversity to these main threats is assessed through the creation of vulnerability prediction models at a national scale, which in the process is transferred to the District level, based on and the current climate forecasts. Monitoring indicators: list of ecosystems and species that are sensitive to climate change (temperature, precipitation). Determination of priorities at the Regional level. Action 2. Enhance adaptation of biodiversity components to the effects of climate change. With the aim of strengthening the potential of individual elements of biodiversity to respond effectively to climate change, it is necessary, on the one hand, to know and record the existing situation and, on the other hand, to actively implement the national institutional framework for the protection, conservation and/or restoration of natural ecosystems and their adaptation to climate change, in accordance with the provisions of the National Biodiversity Strategy of Greece. The effective management, ecological coherence and interconnection of Natura 2000 Network areas contribute to the adaptation of biodiversity elements to climate change. Measure 2.1. Implementation of a national institutional framework for the protection of bio diversity at national and local level Demarcation and institutionalization of areas that include vulnerable ecosystems and/or species. Reassessing the network of protected areas in terms of its adequacy to ensure the adaptation of biodiversity elements to climate change. Monitoring indicators: Number of important areas whose demarcation and institutional registration have been completed by Region. Measure 2.2. Supervision-custody, preservation and restoration of biodiversity elements Evaluation of monitoring and guarding programs implemented at local level (e.g. protected areas with Management Agencies). Evaluation of conservation and/or restoration actions, in relation to adaptation to climate change. 32 Machine Translated by Google Monitoring indicators: Number of ecosystems restored, number of ecosystems whose conservation has been improved, annual reports on the evaluation of monitoring-guarding programs F.D. Measure 2.3. Conservation and sustainable management of vulnerable ecosystems and species within areas of the Natura 2000 Network This measure is also related to the implementation of Measure 1.3, which will allow the identification of the most vulnerable to climate change habitat types - habitats and species of flora and fauna. Subsequently, and taking into account the results of the project "Supervision and evaluation of the conservation status of species and types of habitats in Greece", the objectives and proposed conservation measures will be determined per Region and per region of the Natura 2000 Network, in relation to the adaptation of the most vulnerable types of habitats and species of flora and fauna to the predicted climate changes. Application of adaptive management in areas of the Natura 2000 Network, which is indicated in complex situations with a high degree of uncertainty, such as climate change. Monitoring indicators: Number of conservation targets formulated and measures and actions implemented related to adaptation to climate change. Measure 2.4. Strengthening the ecological coherence of the Natura 2000 Network. This measure concerns the planning and development of ecological corridors between the areas of the Network, in order to facilitate the movement of vulnerable species to more suitable habitats for them, due to climate change. Initially, the method for the identification, mapping, delimitation, conservation and management of the ecological corridors will be specified. For this purpose, the provisions of Article 10 of Directive 92/43/EEC can be used administratively, as well as the possibilities offered by existing protected areas at national level (eg wildlife sanctuaries). Specialization and implementation at a pilot level (eg per Region) will follow. Monitoring indicators: Number of studies prepared, number of pilot applications. Action 3. Enhancing ecosystem functions. Measure 3.1. The purpose of the action is the protection of natural ecosystems (forests, wetlands, etc.) and the promotion of their sustainable management, in order to shield their adaptation to climate change. Dealing with threats and pressures and the sustainable management of semi-natural ecosystems (e.g. species that grow naturally on the borders of crops, species of reptiles in dry areas within crops, etc.) during the exercise of economic activities are a priority for adaptation to climate change. 33 Machine Translated by Google It should be noted that sustainable management measures concerning agro- ecosystems and forest ecosystems are mentioned in the respective chapters (chapters 4.1, 4.2, 4.4, 4.6) as they concern agriculture and forestry. Measure 3.2. Promotion of measures to restore natural ecosystems (forests, bushes, wetlands, etc.) The purpose of the measure is to select and promote restoration methods and techniques with the aim of increasing CO2 sequestration to minimize the effects of climate change (e.g. removal of inert materials from wet local systems, actions to restore burned forest areas with absence of the possibility of natural regeneration). Measure 3.3. Promotion of biodiversity conservation measures The purpose of the measure is to preserve and strengthen vulnerable elements of biodiversity in their natural environment through the creation of in situ reserves (e.g. CRETAPLANT "Pilot Network of Plant Micro-Reserves in Western Crete" LIFE04NAT_GR_000104), but also the ex situ conservation of these, through the creation of sperm banks and genetic material. Monitoring indicators: Number of management studies and management plans that have incorporated good practice measures per year and per region. Number of in situ and ex situ stocks. Action 4. Land use regulations. The purpose of the action is to prevent the further reduction and fragmentation of natural ecosystems, as well as the loss of suitable habitats of rare, threatened and/ or protected species of flora and fauna. At the same time, care is taken to strengthen ecosystem services as a protective shield against the effects of climate change. In order to determine the measures of Action 4, what is mentioned in other Sectors (Agriculture, Built Environment, etc.) should also be taken into account. In this context, green infrastructure approaches and broader solutions offered by ecosystems (ecosystem based adaptation) are taken into account and strengthened. Action 5. Education, information, awareness, training, promotion and promotion of alternative forms of tourism. The purpose of action 5 is to inform and raise public awareness about the importance of preserving biodiversity and its adaptation to climate change, to strengthen the competent services, as well as to highlight the important elements of each region. Measure 5.1. Educational programs on biodiversity and adaptation to climate change. 34 Machine Translated by Google Implementation of targeted educational and school programs on biodiversity and climate change. Monitoring indicators: Number of school programs and teachers in seminars implemented, as well as teachers and trainees who participated in them. Measure 5.2. Information and awareness about biodiversity and adaptation to climate change. Implementation of targeted actions at the District level related to the adaptation of biodiversity to climate change. These actions can include: creation of a website, production of information brochures, organization of workshops and special events, voluntary actions and information campaigns for selected social groups, etc. Monitoring indicators: Annual number of publications, special editions, conferences and events produced, annual website traffic, etc. Measure 5.3. Strengthening of the competent services Provision of the necessary means, including adequate staffing, continuous training of staff and the availability of the necessary scientific and technical tools and financial resources at national, regional and local level, so that the competent agencies can properly plan and effectively implement measures adaptation of biodiversity to climate change in their field of competence (thematic or spatial). Facilitating access of public administration and self-government officials to the necessary environmental and climate information for formulating coherent and effective policies and interventions. Attendance indicators: Annual number of training programs etc. Measure 5.4. Highlighting important areas and promoting alternatives forms of tourism. Possibilities to promote ecotourism and other alternative forms of tourism (bird watching etc.) in protected and other areas. Monitoring indicators: Number of areas with new promotion and revitalization plans, number of actions implemented (trails, observatories, information stands and signs) per area and Region. Action 6. Integrate climate change into development plans and biodiversity monitoring tools. This action is related to the implementation of Action 1. Measure 6.1. Enhancement of existing bio-monitoring tools weight to take into account the effects of climate change This measure is related to Measure 1.2 of Action 1 and aims to strengthen biodiversity monitoring programs so that they take into account the effects of climate change. Among others, the following are recommended: 35 Machine Translated by Google Periodic updates of species range and habitat type maps produced by the Monitoring project to monitor any changes Create specialized and up-to-date monitoring indicators of climate change impacts on biodiversity. Creation of a network of permanent sampling areas to monitor species and ecosystem functions of interest with the aim of chronically recording the response of biodiversity elements to climate change. Anticipation of the possibility of extraordinary recordings/ measurements after extreme weather events. Monitoring indicators: Frequency of updating and updating maps and indicators Measure 6.2. Integrating climate change impacts into development plans. All development plans, as well as the various studies carried out for future projects (e.g. Environmental Impact Studies) should take into account the effects of climate change on biodiversity the. Monitoring indicators: e.g. Annual number of studies produced that include reference to the effects of climate change on biodiversity components. 4.4 Fishing The effects of climate change on the Greek seas, and in particular on fishing, affect (a) the biodiversity of marine areas, (b) the biology of local species, mainly affecting their survival and mortality, (c) the fundamental habitats of fish , (d) the distribution of fishing effort, (f) the implementation of fishery management plans and the difficulty of enforcing them on those involved in fishing and (g) the increase in the cost of fishery production and management measures. For the selection of the most important adaptation actions regarding the effects of climate change on fisheries, it is considered necessary to include all the above parameters. However, the necessity of integrating the geographical and topographical diversity of the Greek coasts/seas in the definition of adaptation actions, in combination with the dispersion of the fishing power in larger geographical areas, which sometimes also include maritime areas of neighboring states with common borders , makes this project particularly complex. The most important actions that can be included in this context are: 36 Machine Translated by Google Action 1. Consolidation of knowledge of the impact of climate change on fisheries. The purpose of this action is to gather all existing information regarding the impact of climate change on fisheries, including marine ecosystems, marine fish stocks and fish fauna. Measure 1.1 Creation of databases that include the temporal variations of the marine environmental parameters affected by climate change, not only in the Greek seas, but also in the neighboring ones. Performance indicators: Number of publications and related technical reports on an annual basis. Measure 1.2 Creation of databases that include the temporal fluctuations of fishing stocks and fishing production in the Greek seas. Performance indicators: Number of publications and related technical reports on an annual basis. Measure 1.3 Creation of databases that include elements or data affecting the seasonal fluctuations of the fishing production of the neighboring seas bordering the Greek seas. Performance indicators: Number of publications and related technical reports on an annual basis. Measure 1.4 Creation of databases in which the temporal and geographical evolution of the country's fishing techniques and their corresponding fishing production are recorded. Efficiency indicators: Number of publications and related techniques on an annual basis. Measure 1.5 List the research programs that have been funded in the last decade by national, EU and international bodies and aim at the impact of climate change on fisheries. Performance indicators: Number of programs, evaluation grade and investment cost sis. Action 2. Adaptation to the new situation of fisheries, which will be created by the effects of climate change. Measure 2.1 Assess and integrate the social and economic diversification that climate change will cause in fisheries at the regional and ecosystem level relative to the current situation. Performance indicators: Number of publications and related technical reports on an annual basis. Measure 2.2 Assessment of changes in consumer preferences due to the impact of climate change on fisheries. Performance indicators: Number of publications and related techniques per year base. Measure 2.3 Organization of international institutional governance mechanisms that will activate and strengthen the expansion of fishing interests outside 37 Machine Translated by Google of the national borders in agreement with the neighboring states, with the aim of dispersing the fishing power over a larger geographical area, the rational management of the fishing of the common international fish stocks and the exploitation of more fishing resources that will arise due to the action of climate change. Efficiency indicators: Number of laws, regulations, international decisions and technical reports on an annual basis. Measure 2.4 Study of the implementation of long-term effective national and international fisheries management plans for the new fisheries resources that will eventually spread in the Greek seas and the organization of relevant monitoring systems for their implementation, so as to facilitate the gradual adaptation of the fisheries exploitation system to the climate tical change. Performance indicators: Number of laws, regulations, international decisions and research studies (publications, technical reports) on an annual basis. Action 3. Sustainable management of marine biological resources. Measure 3.1 Establishment or improvement of existing systems for recording (monitoring) biotic and abiotic parameters of the marine ecosystem necessary to assess its vulnerability due to climate change. Effectiveness indicators: Number of legislation, ministerial decisions and research studies (publications, technical reports) in annual base. Measure 3.2 Establishment of measures for the sustainable management of fishing resources which will be required. Performance indicators: Number of laws, regulations, international decisions and research studies (publications, technical reports) on an annual basis. Measure 3.3 Study of the geographical spread and abundance of marine "invaders" in the Greek seas. Performance indicators: Number of laws, regulations, international decisions and research studies (publications, technical reports) on an annual basis. Measure 3.4 Establishment of measures for sustainable management of biodiversity in the marine ecosystems that will be required in the Greek seas. Effectiveness indicators: Number of laws, regulations, international decisions and research studies (publications, technical reports) on an annual basis. Measure 3.5 Risk assessment and creation of vulnerability prediction models of the expected effects of climate change on marine ecosystems. Action 4. Understanding the action of physical and ecological parameters that determine the mechanisms of climate change impact on fisheries. Measure 4.1 Study and interpretation of parameters (eg salinity, temperature, CO2 emissions, etc.) resulting from climate change and affecting fisheries. 38 Machine Translated by Google Measure 4.2 Mapping the movement of marine ecosystems and fish populations according to the impact of climate change on the marine environment. Action 5. Assess the economic impacts of climate change on fisheries Measure 5.1 Evaluation of the change in the cost of Greek fishing production at country and regional level, including the cost resulting from consumer preferences. Measure 5.2 Evaluation of public and private initiative actions which during climate change will strengthen incentives for the diversification of fishing activities, their relocation, taking into account forecasts and adaptation infrastructure planning. Measure 5.3 Cost assessment for the rapid replacement of the fisheries management system with a new one that a) covers the whole country, b) takes into account new approaches to fishing, c) meets the demands of climate change and, d) will be acceptable to those employed in fishing. Measure 5.4 Organization of contingency plans for those fishing sectors (techniques) that will not be able to move from the areas most affected by climate change e.g. coastal fishing, small pelagic fishing. Action 6. Educational programs concerning the impact of climate change on fisheries. Measure 6.1 Training programs for professional fishermen on the adaptation of fisheries to climate change. Effectiveness indicators: Number of annual programs, number of annual publications, days and events, website traffic. Measure 6.2 Inform and raise awareness among public officials and the public about fisheries and adaptation to climate change. Performance indicators: Number of annual programs, conferences and events, website traffic. Measure 6.3 Highlighting alternative forms of fishing tourism in the ecosystems that will result from climate change. Performance indicators: Number of fishing tourism permits. 39 Machine Translated by Google 4.5 Aquaculture The proposals are primarily concerned with dealing with the consequences (increase in temperature and carbon dioxide and apparent increase or decrease in the water level of marine and lagoon areas, as well as the change in their biodiversity, uncertainty in the appearance-duration and intensity of atmospheric precipitation and winds etc.) of the already observed climate change, mainly in coastal and riparian areas, as well as in areas of the mainland. In general, the expected consequences of climate change for the aquaculture industry concern both possible effects on the technical characteristics of the constructions used, and the change in the environmental parameters (biological, chemical, physical, hydrological) of the facilities of the breeding units. Action 1. Study and record the effects of climate change on the methods and techniques used in aquaculture with the aim of developing new more resistant methods and techniques and/or moving existing units to less vulnerable locations. Measure 1.1. Indicative adaptation measures: Examining the necessity of gradual or immediate (determined by the farmed species, the farming technology applied, and the characteristics of each area) removal of aquaculture units from areas estimated to be most affected. Measure 1.2. Investigation of the necessity of the gradual or immediate existence of technological conditions-conditions for the application of super- intensive production systems (known as closed or semi-closed) by controlling and regulating the levels of the biological, physical, chemical and hydrological parameters of the water used (rearing environment). 4.6 Water resources The importance of water in the preservation of human life, the natural environment and ecosystems as well as in social and economic well-being is indisputable. The integrated and sustainable management of water resources is a safety valve against the numerous and continuous pressures that the water environment receives. According to the predicted climate variability, these pressures will show a rapid increase with climate change directly affecting the hydrological cycle and the processes that make it up, such as evaporation, condensation, precipitation, runoff, filtration, etc. In terms of climate change, the parameters that should at least be taken into account are 1) the decrease in the frequency of rainfall but also the 40 Machine Translated by Google gradual increase in the intensity of these with effects such as: increase in flooding phenomena, reduction of runoff and secondary infiltration, reduction of primary infiltration, advance of flood fronts inland, intensification of irrigation, reduction of stored volume of water in reservoirs, etc., and 2) the increase in temperature with effects such as: prolonged irrigation, more intense evaporation and transpiration, prolonged and more intense domestic uses of water, delayed melting of snow, limited snow cover, etc. The proposed actions and measures concern the mitigation of the effects that are already evident, through methodical and integrated planning for the maintenance of underground and surface water in good condition, while simultaneously covering man-made as well as environmental water needs. One of the most important measures of the EPA, regarding water resources, is the promotion and advocacy of policy, as well as innovative technologies and practices based on the principles of hydrological and ecological management and aimed at the rational management of water through water conservation measures and ensuring more effective use of it. The above, in many cases, can be combined with technical measures, such as e.g. improving infrastructure (irrigation systems, water systems), with the ultimate goal of controlling overconsumption and saving water. Action 1. Creation of a geo-portal integrating information on the effects of climate change on water resources. The purpose of the action is to gather all the information (data, studies, descriptive information) regarding the effects of climate change on water resources and to make the information available on the internet. Measure 1. Collection and gathering of studies, publications, research projects and produced results related to climate change in water resources in Greece. Measure 2. Development of a database and an appropriate geoportal by recording the information of measure 1 per Watershed and through information finding tools using keywords. The said geoportal can be integrated into the geoportal of an information guide on the spatially structured information developed by other agencies and containing water quality and quantity data (e.g. link for the application of the results of the National Water Quality Monitoring Network otic and quantitative characteristics of the waters, supervised by the EGY). Action 2. Projects to address the effects of climate change on water resources. 41 Machine Translated by Google Sea level rise / Coastal zones Assessment of impacts on coastal areas from sea level rise and/or coastal erosion and support to agencies for planning and implementation of appropriate projects (see section 4.7. "Coastal zones") Reduction (quantitative and qualitative) of the performance of water absorption projects. The quantitative reduction of the efficiency of coastal water treatment works (main measure to prevent or reduce salinity). Treatment: Avoiding or limiting the phenomenon consists in reducing or completely stopping the pumping of coastal aquifers, as well as the abstraction of surface water that discharges into the sea. Change in the base level of the runoff. The change in the base level of the runoff, which is a change in the erosion and deposition regime, is related to the erosion or deposition regime of the upstream branches of the hydrographic network. Treatment: Impacts can be identified and quantified using specific models, for different scenarios of the phenomenon. Change the effect weight of structures. The entry of the sea into the hinterland results in an increase in the level of the underground aquifer, with a change in the apparent weight of the structures (buoyancy). Fluctuations in water level and buoyancy with coastal projects will stress the foundations. Treatment: The study of the phenomenon, as before. Precautionary measures Vulnerability study of underground water systems and bodies. Compilation of maps of vulnerability, internal or natural vulnerability (natural or intrinsic vulnerability) and specific or integrated vulnerability (specific or integrated vulnerability) is required. Study of source discharge hydrographs. Construction, analysis and study of a hydrogram of main source discharges. The main concern is the assessment of the available supply during the dry season of the year. 42 Machine Translated by Google Anti-corrosion protection of soils. The phenomenon is quite frequent and disturbing from the undulations and micro- damages of creep, to the large-scale landslides, subsidences, subsidences and other forms of soil instability. Treatment: As action 5 of chapter 4.1 "Agriculture and Livestock". Desertification The factors that cause the phenomenon of desertification are: climate, physiography, geology, soil, hydrology and hydrogeology, as well as anthropogenic activities such as agricultural overexploitation, overgrazing. Greece, like the rest of the countries of the Mediterranean basin, faces a high risk of land desertification (estimated at least 35% of the land area). The Aegean islands, Crete, a part of Thessaly, Eastern Central Greece and Eastern Peloponnese are considered high risk areas. Treatment: As action 5 of chapter 4.1 "Agriculture and Livestock". Update of the National Action Plan to combat Desertification (KYA 99605/3719/2001, Official Gazette 974 B). Maintaining an ecological supply Each water body performs a specific role in maintaining the ecosystem and is affected by the lack of ecological supply: a specific supply that continues to flow when natural runoff is interrupted for specific reasons and is not, at least in its entirety, "lost" at the sea. Treatment: The necessity of (correct) assessment of the ecological supply, with the facts of climate change, is now becoming imperative. The gap, in Greece, is temporarily covered by the KYA for RES. Irrigation water The effects of climate change in Greece refer to the reduction in supply and irrigation water. If this is combined with the increase in temperatures, there is a threat of intensification of irrigation and longer duration of irrigations. Irrigation networks Irrigation networks, where they exist, show significant water losses due to age, poor, incomplete or non-existent maintenance, type of construction, etc. (replacement of worn parts or change of irrigation method, even change of crops). 43 Machine Translated by Google Treatment: In cooperation with the Agricultural Cooperatives, a large program should be activated to repair irrigation networks, expand the use of irrigation networks, investigate the possibility of selecting varieties that require less water, selecting varieties that thrive outside the summer, abolishing free irrigation water, irrigation with we reuse water, placing a water meter at the head of forcibly operating private irrigation wells and control of withdrawals based on a previous study of the area. Return irrigation flow This is a problem found in irrigation areas with water pumped from the same area being irrigated, particularly when irrigation is frequent. After each pumping - irrigation, a remainder of irrigation water returns to the water table, having undergone four pollution processes, If it is taken into account that the velocities of groundwater in porous media are of the order of a few meters or tens of meters per year, it is noticed that, after some irrigations, the irrigation water is seriously polluted. Remedy: Alternate use of irrigation water, where possible, partially or entirely. Water networks Water losses from urban water networks are significant. This is due to the age of large parts of the networks. Another problem in this matter is the replacement of sections of networks consisting of asbestos cement pipes for reasons of public health protection. Treatment: Cooperation of Regions and OTAs, it is recommended to repair worn parts and replace parts of asbestos pipes of water networks. Bottled water Bottled water is potable water that must meet quality specifications. Perimeter protection zones of water intakes and water bottling plants have been a daily practice for decades in developed countries and above all in Europe. The reason for their existence is to avoid pollution of the underground water, with which groups of populations are hydrated, by human activities. These zones, after a special hydrogeological study, are defined as Zone I (direct protection zone), Zone II (biological protection zone), Zone III (chemical protection zone). The X-Day Line for the main pathogenic microorganisms is also determined, depending on the movement speed of each microorganism. 44 Machine Translated by Google There are no perimeter protection zones in any water intake in Greece, either as a water network authority or in water bottling units. Transboundary waters. The issue concerns surface (mainly) and underground waters with Greece being in a downstream position (Evros, Strymonas, Nestos, Axios), with the exception of the case of Aoos, where Greece is upstream. The problems are located in the quantitative domain (lack of water or flood supplies) and in the qualitative domain (chemistry and water pollution). In the underground water, areas of interest have been identified in Epirus (hydrogeological basin of the Heimarra springs, mainly located in Greece), in Prespes (escapes of underground water, together with surface water) and elsewhere. Desalination Today, the water supply problem on the islands is dealt with, as an alternative, by the use of small desalination units, which, however, present significant problems, such as the high cost of purchase and maintenance, their energy-consuming operation, the disposal of the brine and the organoleptic characteristics of the desalinated water, which force its mixing with the underground water before its entry into the water network. Measure 1. Implementation of a network to monitor its effects climate change in groundwater. Measure 2. Optimization of existing meteorological networks, in order to build vigilance and warning capacity for the state of the aquatic environment and to contribute to the adaptation of the use of available resources. Measure 3. Creation of a single organization, which will be coordinated at the national level and will be responsible for monitoring changes in water demand with the simultaneous creation of a national database. Measure 4. Changes in water demand directions with the possible establishment of a national database of water withdrawals. Action 3. Saving water – Efficient use of water – Reducing the abstraction of aquifers. It mainly concerns areas where there is a lack of water in both winter and summer. Measure 1. Promotion of water conservation in all sectors and uses, especially in areas facing shortages and support for rainwater recycling. 45 Machine Translated by Google Measure 2. Encouraging the treatment of waste and the use of recycled water in crop production or in green spaces, especially in areas with shortages. Measure 3. Improving energy efficiency in terms of water abstraction and consumption and future hydropower plants. Measure 4. Optimizing the existing water reserve in the agricultural sector and creating artificial reservoirs in accordance with environmental restrictions, in addition to the improvement measures for water use. Measure 5. Encouraging a change in consumer patterns and attitudes of individuals Action 4. Develop activities and land uses that are compatible with locally available water resources. This includes identifying potential adaptation scenarios for water- intensive activities in areas facing shortages, optimizing water reserves, developing efficient agricultural activities and reducing soil impermeability, thus promoting water infiltration. Measure 1. Identify potential adaptation scenarios for activities that use large amounts of water in areas already facing shortages. Measure 2. Optimizing existing water storage methods and creating new ones if required, especially by replacing pumps during periods of low flow. Measure 3. Rational use of water in activities such as the agricultural sector, tourism, etc. Measure 4. Improving the infiltration potential of soils, so that rainwater can also be used. Action 5. Inclusion of climate change impacts in water planning and water management, particularly in the next water service intervention programs (2013-2018) and water management development programs (2016-2021). This action aims to integrate the expected impacts of climate change and the adaptation measures required into water management planning tools at the river basin scale. Action 6. Assessment of the effects of climate change on hydropower production. Since the "fuel" of hydroelectric projects is water, the purpose of your present action is to study and evaluate the effects due to an imminent 46 Machine Translated by Google of the surface runoff in the country's hydroelectric projects, both from an economic point of view (reduction of energy produced), as well as from a socio-economic point of view (reduction of available water for agricultural use) and an environmental point of view (maintenance of ecological supply) Action 7. Educational programs concerning the impact of climate change on water resources The special problem of the islands of the Aegean and Ionian seas The Aegean islands, especially the small ones, have specific hydrological and hydrogeological characteristics, which are: ÿ the low amount of rainfall, therefore low supply of water, ÿ the high temperatures, sunshine and winds, which favor big six shame, ÿ the small area of the islands, which limits the amount of water that can be gathered, ÿ the mountainous character that favors runoff over infiltration, ÿ the all-round invasion of the island by the sea, which increases the surface and underground runoff and the effects of salinity, ÿ the decisive change of land uses, from (relatively dry) agriculture and animal husbandry, to tourism, a water-bearing activity par excellence. Formatted: Greek For the Ionian islands, the only difference lies in the fact that in the Ionian the rainfall is more, but their other characters are similar to those of the Aegean islands. The above leads to the necessity of applying two basic principles of water management and governance in these areas: ÿ The water requirements are formed in combination with the water potential of each area. Example: in the above areas it is not advisable to install water- bearing industries and, in general, water-bearing activities. ÿ As long as there is a public water project in operation, the operation of private projects is not appropriate. Example: the mining and operation of private hydrogeological sites should not be allowed on the small islands of the Aegean. If this happens exceptionally (eg irrigation), then the boreholes should be equipped with a water meter, to check the withdrawals. Formatted: Greek 47 Machine Translated by Google 4.7 Coastal zones The Greek coastline can be classified geomorphologically, according to the EUROSION program (2001), into four main types of coasts: – Delta coasts at a rate of 6%. Deltaic coasts are characterized by deposition of loose sediments at low altitudes and are highly vulnerable with large displacements, depending on the dynamic balance of erosion/deposition (eg Sperchios, Acheloos). Their geophysical evolution depends on the changes throughout the catchment area of each large hydrographic network that discharges into the specific delta, which increase and decrease the solid supply (such as changes in vegetation, desertification with an increase in erosion, variation in rapid rainfall, forest fires, etc.). – Coasts of Neogene and Quaternary soft sediments at a rate of 36%. Included here are coastal zones of either short length (200- 1000m) that are separated by rocky headlands or extensive beaches (>1km) of varying granulometric composition as well as coastlines of coastal formations of marine deposits (e.g. barriers, spits), including artificially enriched beaches. These coasts are of medium vulnerability and in the event of a rise in the sea level there will be severe erosion phenomena (e.g. coasts of the North Peloponnese island in the Gulf of Corinth or in North Attica - Oropos). – Rocky shores and/or slopes of hard material in 44%. The rocky coasts are of low vulnerability but changes in sea level can affect the discharge of underground karst waters that discharge into the coastal zone (e.g. Kiveri or Galaxidi). – Cobblestone and/or soft rock formations that often include small (<200m) pocket beaches, at a rate of 14%. In each category of coasts, individual categories can be distinguished based on the expected rate of change of the sea level and the possible cases of fluctuations in the stereosupply due to other factors can be categorized. Potential impacts on infrastructure and tourist facilities (including potential impacts on coastal restriction-degradation) can also be categorized. The coastal vulnerability index (CVI) to sea level rise of Hammar-Klose and Thieler (2001) has been applied to the Aegean coast by Alexandrakis et al (2011). Based on this work, it was found that approximately 32% of the coasts have high, 58% very high and only 10% moderate vulnerability. No coast is characterized by low and very low vulnerability. Regarding beaches specifically, Alexandrakis & Poulos (2014) applied a Beach Vulnerability Index (BVI) to a series of Greek beaches assessing their relative vulnerability to both current and future sea levels. 48 Machine Translated by Google Additionally, Monioudi et al 2014 specifically quantified shoreline retreat under future sea level rise. Their research showed that for a sea level rise of 0.48 cm and according to the lowest estimates, >60% of Greek beaches would recede by 20% of their maximum width and about 15% by half of that. But based on the higher estimates, the impacts will be much more significant, as about 2/3 are at risk of being completely excluded (GGET, BeachTour_ 11SYN_8_1466). In addition, the advance of the sea inland will cause groundwater and soil to rise, combined with changes in land uses. The inundation of coastal aquifers cannot be avoided due to the increase in hydraulic load on the sea and can, perhaps, be limited by minimizing or eliminating coastal freshwater withdrawals. For the above reasons, the systematic monitoring of coastal vulnerability is required through the development of low-cost assessment software tools (see program of Horizon 2020 of the EU codenamed CoMPi). The design of adaptation policies to the induced effects of sea level rise (SLR) can be carried out based on the following three approaches: - Retreat: The phenomenon of ASD is implemented and the effects on society are minimized with the planned retreat of all anthropogenic activities and uses from the affected coastal areas. - Accommodation: The phenomenon of ASD is realized and the effects on society are minimized by corresponding modification of anthropogenic activities and uses in the coastal areas affected they are - Protection: The phenomenon of ASD is realized and the effects are dealt with by applying hard and soft protection techniques, which minimize the social effects that would come if the specific protection measures were not applied. Protection through the construction of coastal technical works has been extensively covered by the technical report of the Bank of Greece (EMEKA, 2011). The approach of planned retreat (managed retreat) is one of the proposed solutions for the effective adaptation to the risks and damages from ASTH in the coastal areas, but also to avoid the potential impacts on the ecosystems from limiting the extent of the coastal areas (coastal squeeze). Some of the actions included in the planned retreat are: - Design and development of protection zones between the beach and the house static growth zone. - Discouraging residential and business development in coastal areas facing severe erosion risks, up to and including prohibition 49 Machine Translated by Google of land uses (where necessary) in specific threatened coastal areas. - Relocation of buildings and facilities to safer and higher locations. New constructions in coastal areas must incorporate the possibility of relocation from their initial construction. The immediate adoption and implementation of the ESPKA is necessary to reduce the effects of ATH. The main pillars of such a comprehensive plan are: a) the effort to draw up a coast list b) the determination of risk zones (high, medium and low risk) depending on the character of each coastal area c) the assessment of the risks and impacts of climate change by sector and d) the establishment of a mechanism for continuous monitoring of coastal areas by region. In this context, the determination of the implementation costs of the various adjustment policies is necessary to assess their economic efficiency. However, beyond technical interventions, ESPKA must recognize the need, and support the relevant possibilities, for soft, institutional and behavioral adaptation policies. In this way, the relevant markets are strengthened in the direction of internalizing the risks from the effects of the ATH, while at the same time the efforts to strengthen the social capital in the governance of our country's coastal resources are supported. In this context, it is important to consider the application of Integrated Coastal Zone Management based on the principles and guidelines of the ICZM (Integrated Coastal Zone Management) Protocol of the same name of the Barcelona Convention. 4.8 Tourism The effects of climate change on the country's tourism are of particular interest because tourism is an eminently dynamic sector of the Greek economy (16% of GDP and 18% of employment) and covers more than 50% of the country's trade deficit with multiple disconnections with other sectors (e.g. transport, trade, construction, etc.). Tourism in destinations such as Greece is based, until now, mainly on the Mediterranean climate and the prevailing climatic conditions as well as on the natural environment, factors that, if they change, as predicted by the simulations of regional (regional) climate models, it is possible to affect the attractiveness and competitiveness of the country in tourism 50 Machine Translated by Google of the product and the decision-making process for the time and place of interruptions. It is pointed out that the effects of climate change may be particularly differentiated spatially and temporally, with the result that existing and potential tourist destinations will receive different effects (positive or negative) that will also affect the distribution- diffusion of tourism in the geography space and time (affecting seasonality as well). The increasing frequency of ever-higher temperatures during the summer, extreme weather events and water shortages are just some of the impacts that will significantly affect the tourism industry. As far as beach tourism is concerned, the effects of coastal erosion and beach retreat have been studied in the context of the ClimaTourism program in which the losses in income for all tourism activities from beach retreat have been calculated (Alexandrakis et al 2015). Snow tourism is expected to be more vulnerable to the expected climate change, due to the reduced snowfall and in shorter periods of time compared to the past. There is also a high possibility of moving the tourist season (for all "Mediterranean holidays") to spring and autumn. On the supply side, water scarcity, loss of biodiversity, effects on landscape aesthetics, effects on the coastal zone and infrastructure (general and tourist) as well as effects on agricultural production should be considered and addressed. appropriate. For the selection of adaptation actions, an understanding of the relationship between climate and climate change is required in the different regions-regions of the country. The main actions and measures include, among others, the following: Action 1. Impact on the attractiveness of the destination area taking into account thermal comfort indicators. Measure 1.1 Examining the necessity of improving the specifications of tourist facilities. Measure 1.2 Differentiation of tourism product. Measure 1.3 Expansion of the tourist season (promotion programs and advertising, etc.). Action 2. Impact on the factors that support the tourism activity and are related to the water and energy reserves of the country and the required support actions. Measure 2.1 Possible infrastructure projects. Measure 2.2 Incentives for businesses to reduce consumption. 51 Machine Translated by Google Measure 2.3 Information/awareness. Action 3. Impact on the competitiveness/attractiveness of regions/tourist destinations in relation to seasonality, with particular emphasis on mountainous and island regions. Measure 3.1 Development and promotion of specialized forms of tourism (cultural, ecclesiastical, climbing, naturalistic, ecotourism, etc.) taking into account the competition from other countries. Measure 3.2 Utilization of existing infrastructure (capacity) in various regions and connecting them with seasonal activities. Measure 3.3 Create a plan to address the displacement of the turi seasonal period towards spring and autumn. Measure 3.4 Repositioning of the tourist product (branding). Action 4. Impact on the costs of protection projects in basic infrastructures of tourist interest. Measure 4.1 Development of basic specifications for protection projects, taking into account the characteristics of each region. Measure 4.2 Record the necessary public investments. Measure 4.3 Identifying the necessary resources and funding sources also including programs. Action 5. Impact on the costs of tourist units. Measure 5.1 Highlight the necessary investments in infrastructure and technologies to address e.g. high temperatures, lack of water, etc., in the most effective way. Measure 5.2 Highlight the necessary investments to transition the tourism product to a lower carbon footprint in order to reduce operating costs and be competitive with conscious tourists. Action 6. Support actions. Measure 6.1 Create guidelines, at the regional level, to reflect the differences, regarding tourism and climate change that will be addressed separately to representatives of public bodies, the entrepreneurs of the sector and the public. Update and support for dealing with extreme events (heatwaves, fires, etc.) Measure 6.2 Administrative support, organization and awareness of climate change in tourist destinations. 52 Machine Translated by Google 4.9 Action As is well known, most of the greenhouse gas emissions are carbon dioxide emitted by burning fossil fuels for energy purposes. In Greece, the sector with the largest carbon dioxide emissions is electricity generation, due to the burning of lignite. Climate change risk mitigation policies seek to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and therefore primarily concern the energy sector. In this context, it would obviously be aimed to reduce the use of lignite in power generation in favor of forms of energy without carbon dioxide emissions such as Renewable Energy Sources. The analysis of mitigation policies, and thus reduction of emissions, is not included in this text, because it does not concern adaptation policies. For purely analytical reasons, it is assumed that no mitigation policy is implemented, or at least no drastic emission reduction policy is implemented. Therefore, in the context of political adaptation, there is a question of protecting certain energy facilities, such as lignite plants and mines, despite the fact that if a policy of drastic reduction of emissions was followed, their use would possibly be significantly reduced. In the context of a holistic approach to the issue, a mixed policy of adaptation and mitigation will be followed in practice. Then the protection of some energy installations may not be needed at least to the extent envisaged under pure policy adjustment. Analysis of combined policies is beyond the scope of this text. Energy infrastructure vulnerability analysis needs to be determined in great geographic detail. The vulnerability of certain infrastructures significantly affects the entire energy system given the high correlation of energy infrastructures. The following vulnerability cases are briefly mentioned: - The reduced availability of water reduces the energy availability of thermoelectric units that are cooled by lake and river water. Refrigeration capacity restoration works will be required. This problem concerns lignite plants and most natural gas plants in the interconnected system. - The rise of the sea level creates problems for thermal power plants that are cooled by sea water and for this reason are adjacent to the sea. If necessary, protection works are required. This problem will be particularly acute on the islands. - Oil infrastructures (refineries, large storage facilities) as well as some natural gas infrastructures (liquefied gas terminals) are adjacent to the sea, for the purpose of supplying ships. They are therefore vulnerable to sea level rise and extreme weather events. Protection works will be required on a case-by-case basis. 53 Machine Translated by Google - The above also applies to marine hydrogen extraction facilities Thrace. - The productivity of hydroelectric plants is affected by the reduced availability of water. Adaptation projects are combined in this case with irrigation protection and land improvement projects. - Electricity transmission and distribution networks, as well as high voltage centers, are infrastructures particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events and floods. Sea level rise also affects network infrastructures adjacent to the sea, as well as undersea interconnectors. Network protection projects are of great importance in preventing power outages due to extreme weather and other factors. - Production facilities from renewable sources, mainly from wind and secondarily from solar, are also vulnerable. The reason is the extreme weather events that are expected to be intense in the context of climate change. The increase in temperature will also affect heating needs (reduction) and cooling needs (large increase especially in cities due to microclimate). The large load variation that will occur due to these changes will affect the needs (increase) for flexible generation units and increase the cost of power generation. The micro- climate in urban areas will be burdened resulting in a significant increase in cooling loads. These loads have a large seasonal and daily variation. To cover them, power generation investments should be made with a small degree of use on an annual basis and with the possibility of rapid rise and fall of load. These units will therefore have a more expensive average total cost than conventional power generation, resulting in a financial burden on consumers. Some of the cases of vulnerability are local or regional in nature. But on the one hand, they should not be ignored due to their effects on the overall energy system, on the other hand, they should not be treated in isolation, but in the context of a wider plan to protect the energy system. The probabilities of adverse impacts on energy infrastructures by type of infrastructure are not independent of each other, but show significant correlation. This is due to the correlation of the various types of infrastructure with each other within the energy system. The simultaneous effect of multiple causes of energy infrastructure vulnerability is likely to have a non-cumulative but non-linear impact on the energy system. For example, a coincidence of extreme flooding events, with high temperatures and reduced water storage availability, can lead to widespread supply interruptions. Regarding the candidate adaptation projects, the interventions are classified as follows: 54 Machine Translated by Google Action 1. Main System Energy Infrastructure Protection. Measure 1.1 Special vulnerability study for existing electricity transmission/ distribution networks and high voltage centers, and development of an investment program in protection projects. Measure 1.2 Examining the necessity of amending ADMIE and DEDDIE programs for future network projects, so that they are proactively protected, and drawing up a network infrastructure relocation program, if required. Measure 1.3 Special vulnerability study of natural gas facilities, including Revythoussa, and preparation of an investment program in protection projects. Measure 1.4 Examining the necessity of amending DESFA programs for future natural gas projects so that they are proactively protected. Measure 1.5 Special study of the vulnerability of oil refineries and storage facilities, and drawing up an investment program in protection projects that may be required. Measure 1.6 Consider the need to amend regulations regarding safety stocks of petroleum products so that the storage system is proactively protected. Action 2. Projects to protect coastal energy facilities and island systems. Measure 2.1 Special vulnerability study for existing networks and energy units on the non-interconnected islands and preparation of an investment program in protection projects that may be required. Correspondingly for island interconnection networks. Measure 2.2 Review the necessity of amending the EDDDIE programs for non- interconnected islands so that future electricity infrastructure (units, island grids and island interconnections) is proactively protected. Measure 2.3 Special vulnerability study for existing power generation units that are coastal (outside of islands) and use seawater for cooling, and drawing up an investment program for their protection projects. Measure 2.4 Examining the necessity of amending the power generation unit permit regulation and amending existing permits, so that coastal units are proactively protected. Action 3. Water resources expansion and protection projects 55 Machine Translated by Google Measure 3.1 Special study of the vulnerability of hydroelectric units and if it is necessary to draw up programs for the protection of water resources in combination with the irrigation obligations of these units. Measure 3.2 Special study of the vulnerability of power generation units that are cooled by installations with water resources and if the preparation of programs for the protection of water resources is required. Action 4. Research and Development. Measure 4.1 Research on water efficient cooling technologies for thermal units. Measure 4.2 Smart grids and demand management to mitigate the effects of increased electricity demand due to warming. Measure 4.3 Modern methods of protecting networks from extreme weather phenomena. Action 5. Horizontal and coordinating actions. Measure 5.1 Incorporation of preventive protection measures regarding the siting of energy projects (thermal plants, RES plants, natural gas infrastructure and oil infrastructure) and electricity networks. The preventive measures will concern the avoidance of siting in places with great vulnerability to climate change, such as in coastal areas, in areas at risk of flooding and any vulnerable to the effects of extreme weather phenomena to. Measure 5.2 Coordination of measures with the sectors of agriculture, water resources and interventions in the built environment. Measure 5.3 Investment programs for the protection of energy facilities in cooperation between the public and private sectors. 4.10 Infrastructure and Transportation The changes expected from climate change will affect the infrastructure and operational networks of transport, regardless of the means of transport. Action 1. Organization and Decision Making Process Road Transport Measure 1. Establish and implement international standards for weather and emergency bulletin information. 56 Machine Translated by Google Measure 2. Create networks of urban, regional and national stakeholders: transport companies, authorities and users. Measure 3. Issuance of educational and informational materials for cases emergency. Measure 4. Carry out public campaigns to inform the public about the risk situation at the local level. Rail Transport: Measure 1. Planning emergency routes or diversions, due to cutting networks in areas or points of high vulnerability. Air Transport: Measure 1. Inclusion of aspects (parameters) of climate change in ATM airport regulatory scheme. Measure 2. Improving the capacity of the containment equipment (eg snow blowers, air conditioners). Measure 3. Planning emergency routes or diversions due to network outages. Water and Sea Transport: Measure 1. Development of a navigation management system, as well as further standardization and expansion of navigation-related information. Measure 2. Creation of a "task force" for the purposes of rapid reaction in cases of serious disruptions to navigation caused by hydrological/meteorological phenomena. Measure 3. Increase the awareness (awareness) of the various stakeholders regarding the effects of climate change on inland navigation. Measure 4. Cooperation between weather services, oceanographic institutes and other bodies providing expertise and resources. Action 2. Technical content Road Transport Measure 1. Examining the necessity of building dams and flood defenses ric projects for protection against water. Measure 2. Improved drainage at intersections. Measure 3. Examination of the necessity of raising the coastal road networks in areas or points of high vulnerability. Measure 4. Design and investment in new materials with the possibility of "quick recovery". Measure 5. Provision of shelters for non-motorized means of transport. 57 Machine Translated by Google Measure 6. Prepare for adequate salt supplies and availability of road clearing equipment before and during winter or storm seasons. Measure 7. Development of early communication and coordination plans involving stakeholders and freight companies. Measure 8. Design of new heat-resistant bituminous mixtures and with properties of faster drainage of stagnant water. Measure 9. Reinforcement of road stratification for flood prevention ron. Measure 10. New design standards concerning road network components (signs, lighting) to enhance user protection. Measure 11. Regular cleaning of cycle paths and sidewalks during during the winter. Rail Transport: Measure 1. Examining the necessity of building embankments to protect the infrastructure from high water levels in areas or points of high vulnerability. Measure 2. Improved ventilation in underground networks and stations. Measure 3. Improve railway design, operation and maintenance (e.g. protection against subsidence of slopes around railway networks to avoid cut-off of railway sections, etc.) Measure 4. Protection of outdoor railway infrastructure from the winds (wind- fence). Air Transport: Measure 1. Examining the necessity of building dams-dykes for the protection of infrastructure at coastal airports from flooding. Action 2. Review the need to redesign / improve runways (e.g. build longer runways to accommodate aircraft landing in high density air, relocate runways built on melt-affected surfaces, realign runways due to changing crosswinds, improvement of asphalt mixtures, etc.). Water and Sea Transport: Measure 1. Examination of the necessity of relocation, redesign and strengthening of breakwaters to protect ports and maritime transport infrastructure in general from larger waves. Measure 2. Provision of adequate berths, moorings and equipment shore side to handle (serve) a larger number of vessels. Measure 3. Provision of adequate safeguarding systems (for vessels of light construction susceptible to greater damage). 58 Machine Translated by Google Measure 4. Study on the necessity of removing sediments from the seabed due to large waves and floods and planning related projects in areas of increased vulnerability. Action 3. Legislative content Road Transport Measure 1. Strict speed limit enforcement during storms. Measure 2. Revise maintenance procedures contracts to make them flexible and effective even under rapidly changing weather conditions. Rail Transport: Measure 1. Recommendation for reduced speed limits during storms don. Air Transport: Measure 1. Examination of the necessity of revision of permitted uses and building conditions around airports. Water and Sea Transport: Measure 1. Insuring the infrastructure to compensate for possible losses. Measure 2. Issue guidelines for implementing immediate action measures Action 4. Information flow and use of communication and information technologies Road Transport Measure 1. Develop sustainable business models for the provision of emergency information systems. Standardization of weather information and hazard warnings (eg flooded network, etc.). Measure 2. Development of intelligent feedback systems in vehicles to e communicate user needs. Measure 3. Adopt operational, physical, technical, procedural and institutional integration of weather and traffic control services. Rail Transport: Measure 1. Integration of various types of train movement data monitoring. 59 Machine Translated by Google Measure 2. Temperature monitoring-warning systems in underground infrastructure. Air Transport: Measure 1. Develop a measurement system for evaluation and comparison the vulnerability of airports and airspace. Measure 2. Improve forecasting of local weather conditions and disturbances (forecasts with improved geographical and temporal accuracy can help reduce the effects of disturbances). Water and Sea Transport: Measure 1. Continuous monitoring of the ambient temperatures of infrastructure projects. Measure 2. Collect, record, display and share water depth information. 4.11 Health Given the impact of climate change on people's health and quality of life, the health sector is called upon to cope with the new data and support a health system that can guarantee the most efficient and effective provision of health services to citizens, even and under these new conditions. Both with adaptation actions and with appropriate mitigation actions, the health sector (HI) can not only contribute positively to the necessary upgrading of health services, but also yield a multitude of benefits of a social and economic nature (WHO and HCWH, 2009). An understanding of the health impacts as they are shaped by climate change is required to undertake appropriate adaptation actions (Portier et al, 2010). More specifically, the following are linked to climate change: - morbidity and mortality due to weather conditions - problems of the respiratory system - zoonoses and host-transmitted diseases - diseases transmitted through food and water - diseases of the cardiovascular system - neurological disorders and diseases - cancer 60 Machine Translated by Google - effects on human development - effects on mental health The identification of the sensitive groups of the population that show the greatest vulnerability to the effects of climate change, such as the elderly and people who already show respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, is an important condition for the appropriate treatment of these effects. An important role can be played by the Health Map (developed by the Ministry of Health, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the National School of Public Health / available on the website: http://ygeiamap.gov.gr/) which represents the basic tool for the planning and implementation of the national health policy. It is a mechanism for the continuous collection and processing of data, regarding the level of health, morbidity and health needs of the population, the main factors that affect health, the measurement of needs in special groups of the population, etc. Analyzing these data, it captures the real challenges in primary and hospital health services, as well as prevention and health promotion services. The Center for Disease Control & Prevention (KEELPNO), in the matter of dealing with climate change, focuses on diseases that can be transmitted by transmitters, diseases that are directly linked to climate change. The way climate change affects infectious diseases varies, as both the reproductive rate of transmitters and their activity are affected. Some examples of adaptation to climate change are analyzed below. Common features of these examples are the need for coordinated action both within the health sector, such as actions in health facilities, and outside of it, where cooperation with agencies, such as Local Self-Government, is required, as well as actions for information and the awareness of citizens regarding their self-protection. Extreme weather conditions Improvement of the action plans drawn up by the General Secretariat of Civil Protection in collaboration with the co-competent ministries (see also related reference in subsection 5.8 "Prevention and risk management"). To properly prepare for the effects of heat waves, it is necessary to: - Cooperation with agencies (green areas, areas with air conditioning and ease of access to them, early warning systems, support networks for vulnerable groups). 61 Machine Translated by Google - Actions in areas of the health sector (training – e.g. familiarization with symptoms, patient information, preparation to receive increased cases during the summer months – number of staff and facilities). Self-protection measures (personal habits, seeking shady places, consumption of fluids that do not contain alcohol / caffeine). It should be pointed out that the Regions are already defining air-conditioned areas in their area of jurisdiction. Air-conditioned areas for the public in the Attica Region are listed on the Region's website: http://patt.gov.gr/site/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5006&Ite mid=323 Accordingly, the heated areas are presented on the website: http://patt.gov.gr/site/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=6280&Ite mid=357 Air pollution The enrichment of the air with pollutants, such as suspended particles and tropospheric ozone, with confirmed negative effects on health, requires action by Health Professionals (HEA) and more specifically the following are necessary: - Cooperation with agencies (installation of air pollution monitoring systems – ozone/suspended particles). - Actions on the premises of the Health Sector (TH) (preparation of facilities and staff). - Self-protection measures (avoiding outdoor activities, closed windows, exercising early in the morning or on days with low levels of pollution). Diseases transmitted through transmitters Vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue are both seasonally and geographically affected by climate change. For the contribution of the health sector to the adaptation to the new conditions, it is required: - Cooperation with vectors (installation of early warning systems and monitoring of the activity of disease vectors, such as insects). - Actions in the health sector (preparation of facilities and staff). - Self-protection measures (avoid exposure at dusk/dawn, removal of standing water, appropriate clothing, e.g. long pants when hiking in flea/tick areas). 62 Machine Translated by Google Increased incidence of allergies due to climate change Climate change is affecting plant pollination with the possible result of increased exposure of humans to allergens of natural origin. To deal with this problem it is necessary: - Cooperation with agencies (identification of zones with high pollen levels and monitoring of the possible increased pollination of plants due to the new climate conditions, installation of early warning systems, selection of suitable plants for green spaces). - Actions in the health sector (preparation of facilities and staff). - Self-protection measures (adjustment of personal habits, such as minimizing outdoor activities, closing windows, washing after outdoor activities, appropriate cleaning of indoor spaces). 4.12 Structured Environment Cities are at the forefront of the most rapidly evolving environmental and climate changes. This is due to the changes in land uses, urban structural development that is not based on environmental principles, urban expansion but also increased anthropogenic activity that enhances, spatially and temporally, heat sources, etc. Therefore, the ability of cities to adapt to climate change must be an object of study. The relationship between cities and climate change is multifaceted: - Cities consume around 60 to 80% of the energy produced globally and are major sources of carbon dioxide emissions. - Climate change poses risks to urban infrastructure and quality of life through rising sea levels, extreme weather events, droughts and heat waves. - The building infrastructures are vulnerable to extreme weather phenomena that inde therefore due to climate change. - The way cities grow and operate affects energy demand and consequently carbon dioxide emissions. - Energy flows in the urban environment depend on land use and land cover. The rate of warming on a regional or local scale can be slowed down through the choice of land uses/covers. In particular, the continuous expansion of cities and the rapid increase in energy needs, especially during the summer season, have contributed to the 63 Machine Translated by Google creating an extremely dangerous energy footprint that has direct effects on the climate. A measure worth highlighting and investigating its application further is that of "green roofs or green roofs". One of the biggest problems facing modern cities is the lack of green spaces. The occupation of urban space by cement has significant energy and environmental effects since buildings are responsible, to a large extent, for energy consumption, but also for the emission of pollutants and gases. In Greece, in particular, buildings are responsible for 40% of total energy consumption and 45% of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions into the atmosphere. At the same time, the lack of green surfaces affects public health, but also burdens the collective psychology of the city's residents, intensifying a feeling of discomfort. Already in 2011, the Ministry of the Environment issued a ministerial decision regarding "Terms, conditions and procedure for the construction of planted surfaces on roofs, roofs and outdoor areas of buildings" http://www.opengov.gr/minenv/wp- content/ uploads/downloads/ 2011/12/YA-fytemenes-epiphaneies.pdf Increasing the quota of green surfaces contributes to the aesthetic, morphological and qualitative upgrading of cities, but also to the improvement of our quality of life. Planted surfaces improve the microclimate of urban areas, reduce dust and smog, strengthen and protect building insulation, increase the energy efficiency of buildings and create a natural environment for urban flora and fauna, the so-called "green corridors". They also contribute to the equal distribution of green spaces and balance inequalities in burdened urban areas. Especially for degraded urban areas where overbuilding is observed and where the weakest strata of the population live, the creation of green surfaces can make a decisive contribution to flood management. And the reason is very specific: because the rainwater does not find land to absorb, falling on the cement, it flows more rapidly and floods basements and shops. The Decision also states that a Special Register of Planted Surfaces will be maintained, i.e. a first database will be created that will be constantly updated with the notifications of the construction of planted surfaces that will be submitted to the local building services. Especially for the Athens region and the Prefecture of Attica, the new Regulatory Plan (law 4277/2014, Official Gazette 156 A) describes, among other things, goals and directions regarding the urban environment and adaptation to climate change. Next, specific adaptation actions are mentioned: Action 1. Adapting urban planning to climate change and improving the thermal environment in cities by changing the microclimate of the built environment (urban centers). 64 Machine Translated by Google Measure 1. Identify a holistic methodology for food assessment quality of building infrastructures in the terrestrial and coastal environment. Measure 2. Appropriate architectural and urban planning redesign of spaces with appropriate layout and utilization of free spaces (using shading, ventilation, etc.) Measure 3. Examining the necessity of updating the Building Regulation and the Building Energy Performance Regulation (KENAK) taking into account the microclimate of the cities and the climatic changes that are observed or estimated to occur. Measure 4. Increase urban greenery. The relationship between built space and greenery will have to change to balance the coming climate changes. This will include the utilization of underutilized areas, the redistribution and restoration of greenery in the built environment. Finally, as mentioned above, the integration of greenery into existing structures (ceilings, vertical surfaces, etc.) should be a priority. Measure 5. Use of innovative and energy-friendly materials, both for the renovation of old buildings and for the construction of new ones (zero energy consumption) as well as the utilization of Renewable Energy Forms and other saving techniques that should be included in modern legislation. Action 2. Reduction of the thermal and energy needs of buildings in the direction of a zero energy footprint. Measure 1. Combined use of energy saving technologies, dep donor lighting systems and use of renewable energy sources. Measure 2. Efficient use of available human and material resources. Measure 3. Building user education and improved performance through behavioral changes. 4.13 Mining industry The contribution of the mining industry to the economy of Greece, in relation to the past, has decreased significantly and amounts to a percentage between 3-5% of the GDP, taking into account the processing sector of mineral materials (Geferis, 2009). However, there are serious prospects for improvement, as the country possesses considerable mineral wealth. According to data from the US Geological Survey (2015), Greece, in 2014, was the largest producer of perlite worldwide (40% of global production), the first producer of bentonite in the EU. and the second worldwide (9% 65 Machine Translated by Google of global production), the first producer of bauxite in the E.U. and eleventh worldwide, the second largest producer of lignite in the EU. and the fifth worldwide, the first country in nickel production in the EU. (40% of EU production), the first country in exports of leucolite - magnesia in the EU, the third country in marble exports in the EU. (after Italy, Spain) and among the first six countries in the world and the only country producing hudite. It is also worth mentioning that it has significant gold deposits as well as significant geothermal potential. The mining sector is considered of national importance, given that it contributes (SME, 2015, Damigos, 2011, Oikonomopoulos et al., 2011): - balancing the trade balance due to the strong export nature (exports represent more than 70% of its sales), - in the country's energy security and self-reliance (it is characteristic that more than 50% of the electricity produced comes from domestic lignite), - in employment (about 15,000 direct jobs in companies of the industry and to collaborating subcontractors), - in the development of national infrastructures. Among other things, the sector is a growth driver of other activities since it is interconnected with other sectors of the economy, from the construction sector to the tertiary sector, as evidenced by the outflow multipliers (2-2.4), income (1, 4-1.7) and employment (1.8-4.2) (Menegaki & Damigos, 2012). The extractive industry, however, like other economic activities related to natural resources, will face a range of challenges and problems due to climate change (e.g. Pearce et al., 2009 & 2011; Ford et al., 2010 & 2011). The response of the mining industry to date, at an international level (and much more so in Greece), does not seem to correspond to the potential effects. It is characteristic that less than 50% of Canadian mining companies are taking measures to deal with the effects of climate change, although about 50% state that they are already affected by it and 60% estimate that in the future the effects will be negative (Ford et al., 2010). The potential impacts of climate change on the mining industry relate to the 'inputs' of the production process (e.g. energy, water, labour), the supply chain (e.g. land or sea routes for transporting raw materials and products) and in the Mineral Raw Materials (RMR) market (e.g. changes in consumption patterns may lead to a decrease in demand for certain RRMs). It is expected that they will affect all stages of the activity (e.g. exploration and discovery of a deposit, development of a mine and construction of the necessary infrastructure, operation and restoration phase of the mining activity, etc.) (Nelson, and Schuchard, 2011, ICMM, 2013). 66 Machine Translated by Google Indicatively, these effects may be related to (Oikonomopoulos et al., 2011, BSR, 2011 Pitman et al., 2013): - infrastructure damage (e.g. road erosion, landslides of exploitation slopes and deposits, etc.) due to extreme weather events, - reduction of available water resources due to lower rainfall and av scraping of the exhaust, - loss of working days due to extreme temperatures, - need to strengthen environmental protection and restoration measures and actions, e.g. maintenance of restoration projects due to soil cover erosion and increased irrigation needs, further increase of safety factors in the design of tailings dams, etc., - increase in operating costs e.g. due to increases in energy costs, infrastructure costs, extreme weather damage restoration, etc., - strain on the relations between mining activity and local society due to the "competition" in the use of resources (e.g. the water supplies of the area), the increase in environmental impacts (e.g. increased emissions of suspended particles due to lower humidity and higher temperature), the real or perceived increase in risks to the environment and public health (eg increased concern about accidents related to tailings and other mining waste disposal sites). On the basis of the above, this text focuses on the main axes of the adaptation policies that must be implemented by the mining industry and the State, in order to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and not to jeopardize the viability of the businesses in the sector . Addressing the expected problems requires the design and implementation of adaptation policies in the following two axes: Action 1. Strengthen the sector's information on climate change. Action 1. Preparation of reliable climate models of appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Action 2. Preparation of 'background' models for the assessment of impacts on the extractive industry (eg assessment of impacts on water resources, increase in occurrence of extreme weather events, increase in forest fire risk index, etc.). Measure 3. Assessment of the natural and economic impacts for extractive activity at regional and local level based on climate models in relation to (indicatively): - occurrence of extreme weather phenomena, - availability of water and other resources, - occurrence of forest fires, 67 Machine Translated by Google - increase in the annual number of days with a humidex index>38o C, etc. Action 2. Integrating climate change into the planning, monitoring and operation of mining activities. This Action requires the implementation of adaptation measures both on the part of the companies in the mining sector and on the part of the State. Such indicative measures are: Measure 1. Defining adaptation measures and integrated management of the impacts of climate change in the strategic and operational planning of companies, e.g.: - voluntary commitments to take adaptation measures, - preparation of plans to address the impacts of climate change on critical 'inputs' (eg ensuring an adequate supply of water resources with policies of sound management, reuse, etc.); - preparation of risk assessment analyzes and contingency plans for impacts related to climate change, - diversification of production activities (e.g. creation of an expanded WEP portfolio to deal with the drop in demand) etc. Measure 2. Strengthen infrastructure and projects during and after exploitation (e.g. adopting appropriate safety factors, increasing the time span of analysis during the design phase, etc.) to take into account any adaptation measures to deal with extreme phenomena. Measure 3. Investment in research and development of solutions related to renewable and alternative energy sources, with joint management plans with the local community of critical resources of the area (e.g. water reserves), etc. Action 4. Develop guidelines and standards for recording, assessing and evaluating the impacts of climate change on extractive projects. Measure 5. Mandatory public information regarding the interactions of projects and climate change at least for critical parameters, such as water resources (e.g. through the development of appropriate monitoring indicators that will incorporate climate change), etc. . Measure 6. Reference-link to the National policy for the utilization of mineral raw materials (WOR) announced by the Ministry in 2012. http://www.ypeka.gr/ Default.aspx?tabid=785&sni%5B524%5D= 1658&language=en GR 68 Machine Translated by Google 4.14 Cultural heritage The cultural heritage of Greece has a particularly large area, both spatially and temporally. It covers a period of more than 5,000 years with a particularly high spatial density as in each of its areas there are products of important cultural activity. In addition to being a national capital, Greece's unique cultural character and outstanding architectural heritage attract millions of tourists every year and are also an important asset of the Greek tourism industry. The current climate change, the expected changes in the intensity and frequency of natural phenomena as well as the synergy of all of the above, are expected to affect elements of the environment that are part of the cultural heritage, historical monuments that are directly exposed to the environment and also collections exhibited in museum spaces. Floods, earthquakes, fires, strong winds and the long- term impact of adverse climatic conditions can destroy, even completely, places and objects of cultural heritage while in many cases, part of this destruction lies in mismanagement of the crisis. To date, there has not been a comprehensive approach to the protection of cultural heritage from natural hazards and disasters at the national level, while at the European level the lack of harmonization of the individual recommendations is highlighted (European Parliament, 2007). Indicative adaptation actions Action 1. Knowledge and recording of climate change risks in cultural heritage (institution of new and updating of existing systems of recording parameters related to the effects of climate change). Measure 1.1 Incorporation of the effects of climate change on cultural heritage monuments in the educational material of primary and secondary education. Measure 1.2 Improving the quality of information on the consequences of climate change in cultural heritage monuments by installing systems for recording and monitoring environmental and weather phenomena. Measure 1.3 Elaboration, in collaboration with competent Ministries and agencies, of the case-by-case required investment programs in protection projects against extreme weather phenomena. Action 2. Managing climate change risks to cultural heritage. 69 Machine Translated by Google Measure 2.1 Examining the possibility of creating a Protection Service of Cultural Heritage in Greece. Measure 2.2 Elaboration of studies and management plans for the prevention of risks from climate change and their utilization by the competent Services for the protection of cultural heritage. Measure 2.3 Application of non-interventional techniques to monuments that will ensure continuous recording of immediate deformation, deterioration or alteration caused by continuous environmental changes. Measure 2.4 Cooperation and coordination under the competent agency (see me point 2.1) of all the involved bodies and the Directorates and Services of the Ministry of Education and Culture in the planning of a strategic framework program to prevent and deal with the effects of climate change on cultural heritage. Measure 2.5 Planning action programs for increased preparedness in cases of emergency. Action 3. Integrate cultural heritage protection and adaptation policies into broader national policies. Measure 3.1 Sanctions of European and international conventions for the protection of monuments, the preparation of Management and Prevention Plans for risks caused by climate change. Measure 3.2 Creating conditions to ensure interdisciplinary synergy with the aim of investigating and piloting methodologies for the development of effective sustainable adaptation strategies to the new threatened weather phenomena. Measure 3.3 Preparation of a database regarding the effect of climate change on the materials of the monuments, which can be the basis for the adoption of effective preventive policies. Action 4. Training professionals and informing the public. Measure 4.1 Training Seminars for the prevention of risks in ste words of the competent bodies and Services. Measure 4.2 Informing the public about the effects of climate change through programs and actions in museums, archaeological sites and schools a. 70 Machine Translated by Google 4.15 Insurance sector 4.15.1 Insurance as adaptation Recent climate model assessments document an increasing trend in the frequency, intensity, spatial impact and duration of extreme weather events (especially heat waves, heavy rainfall, droughts and tropical cyclones) (IPCC, 2012). The simultaneous increase in exposure to extreme weather events, and thus the vulnerability of vulnerable populations worldwide, will lead to increased pressures for damage avoidance, mitigation and recovery mechanisms and thus for risk transfer and risk sharing policies. Such 'climate risk insurance' policies (should) be at the heart of a modern climate change adaptation strategy. Informal forms of solidarity to mitigate the damage of extreme weather events are strong 'safety nets' for vulnerable states and population groups but do not provide the protection provided by an organized insurance system against climate risks. For the needs of the national climate change adaptation strategy, the insurance sector can be seen from three different perspectives: as a market, as a climate adaptation tool and as an investor. In these capacities, the insurance sector can support adaptive practices by a) helping to manage climate risks, b) applying incentives to prevent them, and c) providing information on the economic dimensions of both risks and avoidance/mitigation measures of. The European Commission is investigating the adequacy and availability of adequate climate insurance in member states as a component of the European strategy for adaptation to climate change with the aim of "shifting towards a general culture of disaster risk prevention and mitigation" (European Commission , 2013). Gaps in this area are already evident: despite the increased risk of flooding in Europe only 1/3 of vulnerable households are insured. As a consequence, out of the total of €4.3 billion in average annual damage, only €2.3 billion is covered by insurance policies. More generally, catastrophe insurance currently shows in some Member States a low degree of market penetration, with the result that catastrophe insurance markets cannot fully respond to existing risks (Joint Research Centre, 2012 and revision, p.: http:// www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/ direct-losses-from-weather disasters-2/assessment). 4.15.2 The quantitative dimension of damages from extreme weather phenomena Economic losses from extreme weather events are measured as direct losses of economic assets and infrastructure and indirect losses of economic flows (eg GDP). According to the European Environment Agency, during 71 Machine Translated by Google but from 1980 – 2013, the financial cost of natural disasters across the European Union amounted to €368 billion (2013 prices), while the costs of compensation due to extreme weather events increased from €9 billion in the 1980s to more than € 13 billion in the 2000s (2013 prices), (European Environment Agency, 2012). It is pointed out that for the same period (1980-2013) the loss of human lives due to extreme weather phenomena unfortunately amounts to 83,204. Most of the deaths, about 70,000, are due to the heat wave that swept through Europe in 2003. Since its establishment in 2002 to date, the European Union Solidarity Fund (EUSF) has been used in 67 cases to respond to disasters, offering assistance of over €3.7 billion to 24 different European countries. Globally, annual property damage from weather and climate phenomena during the 1960s and 1990s increased eightfold, while during the same period, insured losses increased seventeenfold (Mechler and Kundzewicz 2010). In Greece, the total compensations of the insurance market for the damages from the rains of October 24, 2014 in Attica exceeded €4 million according to estimates of the Association of Insurance Companies of Greece (EAEE). Indicatively, it is stated that for the period 1980-2013 in Greece the percentage of insured capital in terms of damages caused by extreme weather is approximately 1%, while for the European Union the average is around 32%. 4.15.3 Potential contribution of the Greek insurance sector to climate adaptation The Greek insurance sector is invited to follow the example of the insurance industries worldwide, offering financial products for climate risk insurance and diffusion based on an optimized assessment and financing of climate risks. A central parameter of the future dynamics of the sector is the institutionalization of compulsory insurance against natural disasters, an issue which has already been raised in our country by the Environmental Liability Directive (2004/35/EC). It would be useful to assess whether certain private entities and industries (such as utility providers, critical energy and transport infrastructure managers, etc.) should be covered by mandatory standard insurance policies with terms covering weather events. . In cases where insurance is not possible – e.g. for building installations in high-risk areas – insurance systems supported by the public, in the form of financial facilities and/or access to climate data information, may be required. 72 Machine Translated by Google Due to the cross-border nature of climate change, there may be benefits to promoting insurance at EU level, as opposed to national or regional systems. In all adaptation strategies, public-private partnership should be encouraged with a view to sharing risks, benefits and responsibilities in relation to business adaptation measures. The prospect of developing effective climate insurance and corresponding financial services products in Greece may include (European Commission, 2013): - grouping of insurance products, - creation of disaster insurance groups, - assuming the role of (re-)insurer and (re-)insurer of last degree by the Greek State, - institutionalization of parametric insurance against weather phenomena based pointers, - creation of securities linked to insurance, - establishment of effective pricing based on the size of the risk and adapted to the autonomous undertaking of precautionary measures by the insured, - design of long-term disaster insurance contracts, - reducing information gaps and informing the public about the prevention and mitigation of the effects of climate risks. 73 Machine Translated by Google 5. Adaptation in practice 5.1 Prioritization and assessment of adaptation measures Climate change policy in the 21st century is characterized by a continued demand for decentralized, effective and efficient policies. In order to achieve this goal, in the context of public investment policy and other financial programs, an enormous amount of information will be required in order to achieve the intended results at the lowest possible cost, the highest possible consensus and – to the greatest extent possible – compatibility with other public policy objectives. The need to document the feasibility of undertaking public investments for climate adaptation – especially in times of financial distress and recession – urgently brings to the fore the question of reliably weighing their consequences and, therefore, defining measurable performance indicators of the investments undertaken. This worldwide requirement reflects the current upgrading of environmental and climate assessment of investments in a wider system of 'sustainability performance' and comes from the growing desire of international donors to document and confirm the market, environmental and social consequences of the use of their funds. In terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, we have a clear and universally accepted physical unit of measurement (equivalent tonne of CO2 reduction), which enables a clear quantification of the effectiveness of emission reduction measures and the resulting cost/benefit. In the case of climate adaptation, on the other hand, the same is not true: unlike mitigation, in adaptation the physical outcome can vary by sector, location and adaptation technology. Consequently, while the results of alternative adaptation measures and technologies in a specific area should be comparable, in reality they are expressed in a multitude of metric units which make their comparability and therefore their prioritization and selection difficult. Pointing out that more quantified information on the costs and benefits of adaptation is urgently needed, the White Paper (COM(2009)39) highlights the particular problems of prioritizing and evaluating adaptation measures that the nature of the problem and our information gaps entail: - the control of the cost/efficiency ratio of the measures, - the problem of 'bad' adaptation (maladaptation), - the integration of adaptation measures into the broader economic policy, - the correlation of CO2 emission reduction and adaptation policies, - the cross-sectoral effects of adjustment, - the problem of financing new investments. 74 Machine Translated by Google The European institutional framework for prioritizing environmental investments begins to take shape in the Community Directives on the Management of Water Resources (2000/60 EC) and Marine Strategy (2008/56/EC). Aiming at assessing the appropriateness of the proposed "programme of measures" (programme of measures) to recover and maintain "Good Ecological Status", both Framework Directives require member states to use economic evaluation and prioritization approaches (cost/effectiveness and cost/benefits). Part of this institutional framework are the instructions for carrying out cost/benefit analyzes in the context of the financial requirements of the European cohesion policy (EC Guide to Cost Benefit Analysis of Investment Projects, DG REGIO, 2008), the instructions to the member states for the risk assessment and the management of natural disasters (Staff Working Paper on Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management, 2010), the guidelines in the Non-paper “Guidelines for Project Managers: Making vulnerable investments climate resilient” as well as the guidelines for integration of climate change and biodiversity into environmental impact studies (Guidance for Integrating Climate Change and Biodiversity into Environmental Impact Assessment). In similar situations of uncertainty and very long time horizons, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) promotes "risk analysis" while the literature increasingly proposes approaches from the field of stock market analysis [Analysis Real Options]. In light of the above, the 'climate proofing' of projects and policies constitutes a broader group of tools and concepts related to the ex ante determination, measurement and comparative prioritization of their climate impacts. 5.2 Features and categories of adaptive investments Climate change adaptation actions can be categorized into three – partly overlapping – pairs: - 'Hard' interventions of mechanical equipment with relatively large but easily measurable costs versus more relaxed interventions to increase adaptive capacity with relatively small but difficult to measure costs. - Post-added customization features (end-of-pipe) with visible and easily calculable costs versus pre-integrated customization features in the production process (integrated) with relatively difficult to apportion costs. - Modernization interventions in existing technologies (retrofit) (e.g. house insulation) versus designing new technologies adapted to climate change requirements (e.g. new construction regulations for better house insulation). Both investments have easily calculable costs. For all the above categories, climate change is expected to drastically change the structure of capital investments as seen in the constant call for the need for "climate resilient investments". However, in today's times of recession and financial constraints 75 Machine Translated by Google an autonomous adjustment investment policy cannot be justified. "Climate resistant investments" will be increasingly integrated into individual sectoral policies (mainstreaming). This implies profound changes in the way investment decisions are made, particularly in interventions in the production and distribution infrastructures of energy and drinking water, sectors where capital goods tend to have an expected economic and physical life of many years (>50). In the case of public infrastructure, the development of a system of construction and operation specifications, oriented to the prevention and reduction of the effects of climate change, greatly facilitates the evaluation of corresponding investment projects. However, in the cases of proposals for public funding by private, Municipal or Regional bodies, then the particularities of adaptive investments, as analyzed below, pose serious issues of know-how and information. The high degree of uncertainty is a key feature of adaptive investments. Uncertainties about the timing and severity of climate impacts make it substantially more difficult to assess adaptation investment plans and their funding sources. Until recently, adaptation to climate change was considered exclusively a matter of future business decisions: based on an iterative risk management, an 'adaptive' adaptation framework emerged, usually for in the period 2030-2050. Contrary to the above perception, climate change it is now considered – after and since the publication of the 5th IPCC Technical Report – a dynamically evolving risk factor: it is felt through current climate variability and is gradually mutating towards an uncertain spectrum of future impacts. Accordingly, choosing the timing and type of adaptation investments is not only about the question: what kind of investment and when? but focuses on a portfolio of investments over a longer time span starting today through the horizons of 2030- 2050. The problem of choosing adaptation investments becomes at the same time a current problem of business strategy and the Public Investment Program. Consequently, the set of investment options must be enriched with measures of low or even zero probability of being subsequently characterized as wrong choices (low/ no regret measures). Due to their size, most adaptation investments promise a double dividend: in addition to the benefits they produce in the specific sector and for the specific impact for which they are intended, they often produce secondary effects in adjacent ("neighboring") sectors as "externalities » (Skourtos et al. 2014), as for example the construction of overhangs to protect the coasts from sea level rise can have a positive effect on fisheries (through the creation of artificial habitats for catches) and/ or on tourism (due to aesthetic interventions) while these cross-sectoral effects can be negative if e.g. the aesthetics of the overhangs reduce the attractiveness of the coast for tourists. In any case, the cross-sectoral impacts of adaptation investments are rarely taken into account in the process of costing, evaluating and ultimately prioritizing projects. 76 Machine Translated by Google trending investment adjustment plans. If the cross-sectoral effects in a project can easily be expressed in monetary terms, then the problem can be overcome by adding (or subtracting) each positive (or negative) cross-sectoral effect from the total cost of the project. However, this is not always possible, with the consequence that only the qualitative (subjective) assessment of the respective quantities remains. Determining the costs and benefits of adaptive investments it is usually based on the estimation of the corresponding financial flows (Watkiss et al. 2015). Depending on the time horizon of the project, the investment cost is expressed as Net Present Value (NPV) and/or as annual equivalents (annuities). The calculation of both the KPA and the annual equivalents presupposes the selection of discount rates. The choice of an appropriate (social) discount rate is crucial for such long-run estimates. Economic theory and practice are not able to give a final answer regarding the choice of the appropriate (social) discount rate since, in its essence, the matter reflects our moral attitude towards future generations. For example, the OECD suggests for long-term investments a discount rate between 3 and 12% (OECD, 2007). The EU recommends the use of a discount rate of 5% in real prices as an indicative reference price for public investment projects co-financed by the Funds (Ministry of Economy and Finance, General Secretariat for Investments and Development 2009) but also accepts lower rates in cases very distant horizons, such as that of climate change (European Commission, 2005). In accordance with international practice in the corresponding studies internationally we consider a discount rate of 1% to 3% as the most suitable for climate adaptation investments. Also, due to their size, most adaptation investments are logical to create in many cases noticeable issues of equity and regional/social inequalities. The response of citizens to the effects of climate change and the coping strategies they activate are determined by the dominant cultural context. Therefore, the investigation of the impacts of climate adaptation investments on society (impacts on poverty and social exclusion) and the integration of these impacts into the prioritization and evaluation approaches to be qualified, are issues that must be based on a broad and systematic consultation with the affected social partners. Through the consultation, the criteria for determining the social acceptance of the measures and the degree of their contribution to the wider socio-economic development of the area/region will emerge. 77 Machine Translated by Google 5.3 Methods of evaluating and prioritizing investments The evaluation and prioritization of climate adaptation investments is, according to the above, a complex problem. Basic evaluation and prioritization methods are cost- benefit analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis, risk analysis, multi-criteria decision analysis, real options analysis, while traditional analytical techniques are enriched with tools for quantifying uncertainty, cross-sectoral and social impacts etc. It is pointed out that from a purely analytical point of view, methods must be distinguished from systematicity. The tools and working assumptions of the method must be distinguished for their systematicity and thus be able to be applied to similar cases. This ensures the standardization and 'transfer' of the results of previous studies to similar cases, if time and financial constraints so require. The accumulation of study experience, in combination with the development of the methodological tool of post- analysis of empirical primary data, today makes the transfer and adaptation of older data to new, corresponding evaluation cases (data transfer), a reliable low-cost alternative. The methods used must also be distinguished by practicality: In relation to non- economic ones, the implementation of economic methods can be time-consuming and demanding on financial means, especially if they involve the distribution of questionnaires to samples of the population. At the same time, however, the quantitative expression of the evaluation results in a monetary quantity is more appropriate to the 'language' of the public and decision makers, making it possible to compare the costs/benefits of the project. Often, of course, the assessment of the cost and benefit of a project is expressed with a range of prices. A disadvantage of economic methods, however, is the omission of a number of 'intangible' impacts (eg social) for which perhaps only qualitative assessments would be possible. In this case, multi-criteria approaches can complement cost-benefit methods. With the current, incomplete state of our available information on many aspects of the environment, such a 'mix' of economic quantities and physical indicators is perhaps the most appropriate form of presentation of climate assessment results to decision makers. The methods used must also be distinguished from conventionality with strategic choices. The widespread perception in this matter is that economic methods do not promote the strategic goal of sustainable development as much as they should, and that an obsession with them can lead to a delay in terms of environmental and climate policy. Unable to include the full range of environmental impacts in the evaluation process, and relying solely on the criterion of economic efficiency, these methods may exclude adaptive investments, which on the basis of a multi-criteria analysis might be accepted. 78 Machine Translated by Google According to the requirements of the modern practice of investment evaluation, the user is forced to choose between the available methods, based on two critical variables: a) the nature and number of evaluation criteria and b) the type of information available. The criteria can concern economic efficiency, social equality, the removal of regional inequalities, etc. The available information can be quantitative or qualitative. At the same time, factors such as the nature of the project under evaluation, time and financial constraints, legal and administrative requirements influence the choice of method. The results of the prioritization and evaluation studies can differ in their scope, that is, they can relate to wider intervention plans or to specific projects. Despite the distinction in terms of scope, they should follow a similar methodology and be part of a hierarchical system of adaptation feasibility studies: a) studies of a strategic nature with macroeconomic content (first level), b) studies at regional or sectoral level (second level), c) studies of specific interventions (third level). The hierarchical structure will ensure coherence and integration of studies within the broader adaptation strategy. The studies will be reported separately and in different detail in terms of methodology in the two categories of adaptation policies, that is, policies that are part of current policies and those that have the main objective of adaptation and have an autonomous character. Also, the studies will include an assessment of the economic resources, the origin of the resources, the effects on sectors, economic factors and the activity, any negative effects from a different use of the resources, as well as the economic valuation of the avoidance of risks and damages from the climate change. The studies will have to compare alternative solutions and will also be a prerequisite for the adoption of adaptation policies and measures and will be put to public consultation. The studies also include the development of strategic roadmaps either by sector or overall, both for adaptation and for the combination of adaptation and mitigation. The development of long-term planning plans is more efficient and coherent when mathematical models of economic content are used for systemic analysis and impact analysis. Mathematical models quantitatively calculate predictions of the development of systems (economy, population, infrastructure, etc.) in the context of development scenarios that incorporate alternative policies. From the comparison of the scenarios, quantitative assessments of the effects, negative and positive, emerge. These estimates feed into the cost-benefit analysis. The basic model, in which appropriate sectoral models are incorporated, is the general economic equilibrium model, which includes many sectors of the economy, the formation of inputs to the productive sectors by factor of production (with an emphasis on capital and labor), the formation consumption and investment as well as fiscal data and policy tools. Adaptation to climate change will require multiple investments in different sectors, with often complementary goals under the regime of intense uncertainty about critical parameters of the problem. 79 Machine Translated by Google Where investments involve interventions in building or mechanical equipment, which must comply with technical 'regulations' and specifications, the prioritization and evaluation of alternatives is greatly facilitated and, perhaps, the process described in this section becomes unnecessary . In most cases, however, investments for climate adaptation will in the future require a thorough gathering of techno-economic data with the aim of prioritizing and evaluating them. Private and public bodies evaluating investment proposals should choose and implement one of the methods taking into account a number of cost and outcome parameters. An assessment of the main approaches regarding information and know-how requirements is given in the table below. Managing Focus on Requirements Requirements Uncertainty Compatibility fairness Method financial in know- in management with and figures how data them administrative practice equality issues Cost analysis - +++ +++ +++ + + ++ Benefit Cost Analysis – ++ ++ ++ + - +++ effectiveness Risk Analysis + +++ +++ +++ - + Multi-Criteria Analysis Decide + ++ ++ + +++ +++ of Real options analysis ++ +++ +++ +++ - + Standardization table of assessment methods regarding information and know-how requirements. 5.4 Integrating adaptive policies into broader policies Adaptation policies must be integrated into broader policies such as: natural disaster management policies, food policies, infrastructure policies, energy policy, transport policy, tourism policy, urban quality of life policy, etc. (e.g. .ESPKA must strengthen and support the implementation of the national goals for the protection of biodiversity and natural habitats as expressed in the National Strategy and Action Plan for Biodiversity). The main way to implement the above requirement is the integration of the "climate safe investment" criterion at all levels of decision-making for licensing and financing of investment projects. 80 Machine Translated by Google Residential areas, tourism areas, as well as energy, transport, land improvement, hydrological, etc. infrastructures are individual sectors for which the "climate-safe investment" criterion is applied, while specialization of the criterion by investment sector is also required in the legislation and regulatory provisions . In addition, due to the long lifetime of the infrastructures and the capital intensity required, it is necessary to integrate in a timely manner. The policy of adaptation is combined with the policy of mitigation, i.e. the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, with an emphasis on reducing the use of fossil fuels. Mitigation policy consists mainly of investments, such as renewable energy sources, modern network infrastructures, saving interventions in the residential environment, electrification of transport, production of bio-fuels, etc. All these interventions are capital intensive and therefore it is necessary that they also satisfy the criterion of 'climate safe investment'. Long-term energy planning is de facto directly intertwined with the adaptation strategy. Also, a special emphasis is placed on spatial planning policy, mainly for residential areas, but also for touristic and industrial areas. Residential areas are expected to be burdened due to rising temperatures and the unfavorable microclimate in cities, while the risks of floods and extreme events are also increased. At the same time, the mitigation strategy includes important energy saving interventions in buildings and soft/green development in cities. Adaptation and mitigation interventions, especially in cities, therefore have synergies but also issues of compatibility and therefore need to be designed together. Corresponding synergies and compatibilities exist for these policies and for spatial planning regarding tourist and industrial facilities. In conclusion, it is desirable to draw up sectoral strategic plans and regulatory texts in order to specify the application of the criterion of climate-safe investment in each investment and infrastructure sector. On a more general level, the implementation of the ESPKA presupposes the integration of its objectives into the broader framework of a transformation strategy for both a healthy and circular Greek economy. Although the Community strategy for a circular economy is primarily concerned with waste management and recycling (see EC 2015), ESPKA aspires to link the concept of the circularity of our production and consumption choices with issues of climate adaptation. The same applies to the possible synergies of the ESPKA with the Framework Directive 2008/56/EC on maritime strategy (http://www.ypeka.gr/Default.aspx? tabid=254&language=el- GR). Based on the above, the PESPKA should also take into account the possibilities of the ESPKA for horizontal synergies with broader, development and environmental policies. 81 Machine Translated by Google 5.5 The international (cross-border) dimension of adaptation The basis of international climate policy, regarding its contractual character, consists of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC – UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) and its attached Kyoto Protocol. The Framework Convention entered into force two years after its signature and currently has 194 contracting parties (http://unfccc.int/). Article 2 of the Framework Convention refers to the obligation of contracting parties to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions, so as to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. This means that States Parties undertake to ensure that human-induced climate change does not limit the adaptive capacity of ecosystems and human activities (Sands, 1995). Consequently, the Framework Convention at this point establishes the two pillars of international climate policy: emissions mitigation and adaptation. Her next two articles refer implicitly to adaptation. Article 3, in the third and fourth paragraphs, mentions the obligation of the parties, especially the developed ones, to cooperate and jointly share the costs of adopting adaptation measures. In particular, 3.1 states that the Parties of the First Annex should take the necessary measures to combat the effects of climate change and in 3.2. that the particular weaknesses of developing countries should be taken into account. The objectives set by Article 4 are more qualitative than quantitative. The only commitment that exists concerns the definition of a base year as a reference for reducing emissions (1990)4 . Article 4.1 is central to the adaptation pillar because it states that Parties should design, implement, publicize and update national programs to address climate change including adequate adaptation measures5 . In the fifth paragraph of Article 4.1, it is pointed out that adaptation is a matter of international cooperation and indicates the measures that the parties should undertake, such as integrated coastal zone management, rational management of water resources, sustainable agriculture, etc. 4 In this direction, the general commitment is specialized only in the obligation of the contracting parties to keep a record (inventory) of the sources of their emissions, as well as of their natural reservoirs. Also, the use of the word 'adequate' to define adaptation is problematic, as there is no clear interpretation of how adequate adaptation is determined. 5 See Article 4.1. where it is stated, among other things, that "the parties shall promote and cooperate in the development, implementation and dissemination, including the transfer, of technologies, practices and processes that control or reduce or prevent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases not controlled by the Protocol of Montreal, in all relevant sectors, including energy, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and waste management'. 82 Machine Translated by Google In the very next paragraph of Article 4.1, the text of the Framework Convention calls on the Parties to carefully plan their actions, as there is always the risk that instead of improving the situation they will cause more problems and malfunctions, which is more widely known as bad adaptation (maladaptation). Many and important impacts of climate change are regional and transboundary in nature. The direct and indirect effects create interdependencies between states, as for example in the water issues the hydrological and socio-economic effects, and therefore a way of joint management should be found. As Greece shares both important water resources and mountain masses with significant forest areas with the northern neighboring countries, it is necessary to have communication channels both for the exchange of data, as well as procedures and adaptation policies in the cross-border areas (e.g. the Cross-border Park of Prespa acquired institutional status in February 2010 with the international agreement signed by Greece, Albania and Macedonia, but also under the "umbrella" of the EU. Actions at cross-border level: - identification and recording of cross-border adaptation issues, first at a general level (water volumes, forests, biodiversity, agriculture, fisheries) and then at an example level (Evros river), - creation of communication channels with neighboring countries for the exchange of data and information initially, and then for the formulation of common actions and strategies, - creation of common data collection stations where the present infrastructure absent or insufficient, - information to all those involved in cross-border areas of high vulnerability and provision of the necessary training to deal with the problems, - promotion of cooperation between the competent institutions of the countries with which we share the same problems, with the ultimate aim of concluding agreements for their management. Actions at regional and international level: - participation and cooperation for the formulation of adaptation strategies in areas with similar problems (hydrological problems in the Mediterranean basin), - participation, cooperation and promotion of international cooperation in understanding the effects of climate change and dealing with them. At this point, the most important international dimension of the issue regarding the "Paris Agreement" should be highlighted. 83 Machine Translated by Google In December 2015, during the 21st United Nations Conference on Climate Change (UNFCCC, COP21) held in Paris, the now historic "Paris Agreement" was approved, which is a new global and legally binding agreement, the goal of which is to keep the rise in average global temperature for this century below 2 degrees Celsius and to lead efforts to limit the increase in temperature even further - if possible - to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the previous -industrial levels. Both in the texts of the Paris Agreement and the COP21 Decision there are many references and obligations of the states regarding Climate Adaptation (see the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: http://www.ypeka.gr/Default.aspx?tabid=447&language=el- GR with the results of the COP21 Conference and the Paris Agreement). It should be pointed out that in the "2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development" of the United Nations, member states have committed to protecting the planet from degradation and must take urgent action on climate change. 17 specific Sustainable Development Goals and 169 actions have been developed which show the size and ambition of this new global initiative (https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/post2015/ transformingourworld ) In this context, the 13th goal of Sustainable Development (https:// sustainabledevelopment.un.org/topics/climatechange) is relevant to adaptation issues. which is linked to the previous Millennium Development Goals (Millennium Development Goals) and focuses on "taking urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts", while recognizing that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will be the main international, intergovernmental forum for negotiating the global response to climate change. 5.6 Strengthening adaptive capacity: Research, education and awareness The particularity and criticality of climate phenomena requires institutions and citizens to be informed and able to plan their future with a horizon of storms. But our existing capacity to respond to extreme climates and the gradual, irreversible changes they are expected to bring to our way of life is limited. The success of E SPKA is essentially based on strengthening our adaptive capacity to climate changes so as to avoid their consequences on society and the economy of our country as much as possible. Strengthening adaptive capacity is a multidimensional concept and includes both intangible (eg education and training) and tangible (eg building adaptations) interventions. 84 Machine Translated by Google In general, adaptive capacity is considered to be closely related to the ability (individuals and institutions) to access financial resources and information. It is important to emphasize that by its very nature, strengthening adaptive capacity must be an action in advance and not a reaction to already occurring weather and climate events. ESPKA can play a leading role in actions to strengthen adaptive capacity, linking them to its broader targeting. Education is a key driver for the creation of "climate awareness and adaptive capacity", especially when it is directed at the younger ages. In this direction, primary and secondary education should be strengthened with environmental education programs, in topics related to contemporary environmental problems. As far as higher and higher education is concerned, emphasis must be placed on relevant teaching and research topics with structural support from bodies that investigate climate change, the atmosphere and the environment in general. Career guidance should also include goals for career positions related to the green economy. Emphasis on new positions in civil protection, infrastructure protection, etc. Ways to strengthen the adaptive capacity of professional groups, government agencies and interest groups can be: 1. early warning systems 2. dissemination of information and accessibility to climate data 3. connection and partnerships of the scientific community and the private sector 4. training and lifelong learning Progress in strengthening adaptive capacity should be monitored with appropriate indicators that follow the six (6) stages of adaptive management: Stage 1 - assessment of the problem: identification of management objectives, indicators of success, options for action, assumptions, significant uncertainties and alternative hypotheses Stage 2 - planning actions to check assumptions - predicting results based on existing knowledge level Stage 3 - implementation of the planned actions Stage 4 - monitoring of implementation and effectiveness: if there are deviations from the plan, and where the objectives have been achieved Stage 5 - evaluation of results: which actions were most effective, and which assumptions should be accepted (or rejected) Stage 6 - setting and revising uncertainties and assumptions and repeating processes. Providing findings to all involved agencies. 85 Machine Translated by Google Enhancing resilience and adaptive capacity by improving the resilience of social, economic and natural systems so that they can cope with climate change without collapsing will be essential for successful adaptation of the ESDP. 5.6.1 Volunteering Volunteerism is now an internationally established institution, which contributes to addressing, among others, various social, economic and environmental problems and fills the gaps that exist due to weak state mechanisms. In recent years, many groups and NGOs (Non-Governmental Organizations) have appeared in Greece with a multitude of voluntary actions, with the main fields of application being the environment, culture, social services, etc. Regardless of the field of application, NGOs support their action to the voluntary contribution of their members. Volunteering is not just a term, it is an attitude to life and acts constructively in the social firmament, as it concerns everyone, regardless of social and economic discrimination, promotes the active participation of citizens in the defense of their fundamental rights and strengthens social solidarity and cohesion . Thus, in an era of ever-increasing natural and technological disasters, the concept of volunteering becomes prominent, highlighting the need for social solidarity and selfless contribution in the field of civil protection, where immediate assistance in the event of such phenomena is imperative. The needs of adaptation to climate change provide a wide field of offer for volunteers and NGOs, both in terms of requirements for assistance in specific actions/activities, as well as in informing and sensitizing citizens. In this context, it is advisable to organize and coordinate voluntary NGOs – at the regional level – in order to optimize their effectiveness according to the conditions of adaptation. With Law 3013/2002 on the Upgrade of Civil Protection (see http://www.civilprotection.gr/) the Civil Protection Voluntary System was instituted to deal with natural and technological disasters, which operated as a pilot since 2001. The General Secretariat of Civil Protection is the national organization for the inclusion of Voluntary Organizations (EO) and Specialized Volunteers in a Register that it maintains for the implementation of the above purpose. EOs and Qualified Volunteers are included in the potential of civil protection by undertaking the support of disaster prevention, response and restoration actions. 86 Machine Translated by Google 5.7 Consultation of social partners on adaptation In the European Union of the 21st century, the consultation of critical national choices with the social partners is a presumption of democracy and a factor of successful implementation. The choices we are asked to make through the ESPKA are matters of vital importance for the current and future well-being of citizens. The ESPKA, the further specialization with the PeSPKA, their implementation, the monitoring of their application, their updating procedures as well as everything else related, require informed citizens and institutions with a strong adaptive capacity (see section 5.6). The public consultation at all stages of the implementation of the ESPCA and the PESPCA and ensuring participative processes from the entire public administration, the scientific community, the productive classes, active citizens, etc. are essential factors that guarantee successful implementation. In the context of open governance and in order to ensure the information and participation of both citizens and agencies in the decision-making process, the Ministry of Environment and Energy provides the possibility of electronic consultation of the Ministry's draft laws and decisions. In this context, the ESPKA was posted for consultation on the website of the Ministry of Environment and Energy. 5.8 Risk Prevention and Management With regard to the prevention and management of risks caused by climate change, it is pointed out that already in 1995, the institution of Civil Protection has been established (Law 3013/2002), with the aim of "protecting the life, health and property of citizens from natural, technological and other disasters that cause emergency situations, during a peaceful period, which constitutes the basic legislation of Civil Protection. Means for achieving this goal are mainly "the preparation of prevention plans and programs, by risk category, the adoption of preparedness measures and the undertaking of prevention, preparedness, response and restoration actions..." (art. 2, par. 2) ). 87 Machine Translated by Google According to the Civil Protection General Plan with the watchword "Foreign States" (Y.A. 1299/2003), the fundamental principles for Emergency Planning, the levels of control and coordination of operations, as well as those responsible for drawing up Civil Protection plans were defined , which include both Central Administration and Local Government bodies. This Plan assesses and evaluates the risks and points out the vulnerable areas, with the aim of the most complete planning and more effective action of the competent services. Also, with this plan, the responsibilities of the Regions and Municipalities/Communities were defined in detail, as well as the planning obligations for all agencies (central, regional and local). With this Plan, the formation of a system of effective response to catastrophic phenomena is sought, with the aim of protecting the life, health and, in essence, of citizens and the natural environment. The General Secretariat of Civil Protection has drawn up the General Plan FOREIGN STATES (Government Gazette 423/10-4-2003/B) and approves the special plans drawn up by the relevant ministries and regions to deal with catastrophic phenomena. More information on the website: Planning, Conducting and Evaluation of Exercises P.P. within the framework of the General Civil Protection Plan "FOREIGN STATE" The General Secretariat of Civil Protection has been designated as the Coordinator for dealing with disasters at the national level, while for disasters at the peak and regional level, OTAs of the A' and B' degree are respectively designated. The principle of subsidiarity is important in civil protection, because it determines the criteria for activating each level of administration and the distribution of responsibilities for all phases of the emergency management cycle, including central administration, decentralized administration, regional self-government and municipalities. The changes launched with the "Kallikratis" program created a different framework for civil protection at the local/regional level, opening up new challenges in terms of structures, planning, personnel, responsibilities and equipment. the new Regions and the new Municipalities. Since 2009, the General Secretariat of Protection has drawn up emergency plans for each natural disaster (floods, etc.) of each Region and Prefectural Self-Government and has issued a relevant manual. The manual can be found on the website: http://civilprotection.gr/sites/default/gscp_uploads/EgxiridioSxedionEA_PerifNA2 009_el_GR_1.pdf. A manual for drafting and harmonizing special plans per natural disaster at the level of the Ministry or other central body has also been issued. 88 Machine Translated by Google Addressing these new challenges, both regionally/locally, in the context of the administrative reform of the "Kallikratis" Program and at the central level, in the context of the reformed EU Civil Protection Mechanism, taking into account all the new data from the effects of Climate Change, are one of the important challenges of the new Programming Period. Special mention should be made of the initiative “Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction” (http://www.unisdr.org/we/coordinate/sendai-framework) The "Sendai framework" for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (also referred to as the "Sendai Framework") is the first major international agreement on "Development after 2015", with seven goals and four priorities for actions. It was adopted by the UN General Assembly following the 2015 3rd United Nations World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR). The Sendai framework is a 15-year, voluntary, non-binding agreement that recognizes that the state has the primary role in disaster risk reduction, but that responsibility should be shared with other stakeholders, including: the private sector; of the local government, and other interested bodies. The “Sendai framework” is the successor instrument to the “Hyogo framework for action” (http://www.unisdr.org/we/coordinate/hfa) for the period 2005-2015 for improving the resilience of nations and communities to disasters . It is the result of consultations that began in March 2012 and intergovernmental negotiations conducted from July 2014-March 2015, supported by UNISDR at the request of the United Nations General Assembly. In this context, ESPKA offers Civil Protection a guide to both the effects of climate change and alternative possible approaches to adaptation issues. 5.9 The European efforts to adapt to climate al hare The European Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change In 2013, the European Union (EU) strategy for adaptation to climate change was agreed. In June 2013, the relevant Council Conclusions were adopted (in Greek): http://register.consilium.europa.eu/doc/srv?l=EL&f=ST%2011151%202013%20INIT 89 Machine Translated by Google The Community Strategy (detailed on the website: http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ adaptation/what/documentation_en.htm) supported adaptation mainstreaming (the process whereby adaptation concerns are integrated into existing EU sectoral policies) and funds adaptation actions in countries. It also enhanced research and information sharing. The European Topic Center on Climate Change and Adaptation European Topic Center for Climate Change & Adaptation (ETC/CCA) http:// cca.eionet.europa.eu/ is a consortium of European organizations under the umbrella of the European Environment Agency (EEA) to carry out specific tasks – as defined in the ETC/CCA Annual Action Plan (AP) – in a manner consistent with the strategy for the Multiannual Work Program and especially the EEA's annual work program on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation for Europe as a whole. Specifically, in 2014-2018 the ETC/CCA consortium consists of 14 organizations/ partners from EEA member countries led by the Italian Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change (CMCC), which combine their thematic expertise in the field of climate impacts Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation - CCIVA): http://www.cmcc.it/ As such, ETC/CCA is an integral part of the European Environmental Information and Observation Network (Eionet), the cooperation network for the EEA, which is crucial for the collection and organization of data and the development and dissemination of information. In particular, ETC/CCA supports the development and implementation of the EU Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change by assisting the EEA in maintaining an online platform supporting a European adaptation to climate change http://climate at adapt.eea.europa .eu/ climatic (Climate-ADAPT): As of June 2014, several European countries have adopted national adaptation strategies, while over ten have also developed a national action plan (EEA, 2014n). Listed are websites with information from indicative European climate change adaptation strategies (in English): - Austria: Austrian Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation (May 2013) http://www.lebensministerium.at/dms/lmat/umwelt/klimaschutz/klimapolitik_natio nal/AdaptationStrategy/strategie kontext/AustrianAdaptationStrategy_Context_FINAL_25092013_v02_online.pdf 90 Machine Translated by Google - ÿÿÿÿÿÿ: Belgian Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation (Dec. 2010) http://www.lne.be/themas/klimaatverandering/adaptatie/nationale-adaptatie strategie/ Belgian%20National%20Adaptation%20Strategy.pdf - Germany : German Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation (Dec. 2008) http://www.bmub.bund.de/fileadmin/bmu import/files/english/pdf/application/pdf/das_gesamt_en_bf.pdf - Cyprus: Development of a National Strategy for Climate Adaptation Change http://cypadapt.uest.gr/wp content/uploads/20141222/MESIMERIS_presentation%201.pdf - Ireland: Irish Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation (Dec. 2012) http://www.environ.ie/en/Publications/Environment/ClimateChange/FileDownLoad, 32076,en.pdf - United Kingdom: United Kingdom Climate Change Risk Assessment (Jan. 2012) https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/69 487/pb13698-climate-risk-assessment.pdf - Finland: Finnish Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation (2005) http://www.mmm.fi/attachments/ymparisto/5kghLfz0d/MMMjulkaisu2005_1a.pdf Estimates of climate change risks or vulnerability are available for at least 21 countries, but in most there is no information on the costs versus potential benefits of adaptation. There is also a lack of information on the impacts of adaptation management actions on biodiversity, as empirical studies are quite scarce (Bonn et al., 2014). At this point, the "Cove nant of Mayors" should also be highlighted. http://www.covenantofmayors.eu/The-Covenant-of-Mayors-for-Climate.html which is an example towards a multi-level governance model for the successful implementation of local climate change policies. It provides a clear but flexible framework for taking action from engagement and preparation to implementation of action plans that allows local authorities to monitor and publicize their data in a structured and systematic way. Also, the "Mayors-Adapt" initiative http://mayors-adapt.eu/ implemented under the Covenant of Mayors, focuses specifically on adapting infrastructure and policies to build more sustainable cities. The Pact is expected to extend beyond the borders of Europe. 91 Machine Translated by Google Finally, promoting synergies between adaptation and disaster risk reduction is also important. In the EU, the Civil Protection Mechanism systematically includes adaptation as part of civil protection personnel training and financial assistance provided to support EU Member States' actions in disaster prevention, preparedness and response. http://ec.europa.eu/echo/what/civil-protection/mechanism_en 5.10 Adaptation to climate change and international security The recent waves of refugees from Syria and the dramatic developments taking place both in the Greek islands located in the eastern Aegean and in several EU countries have gathered the interest of global public opinion. Years ago, the mass exodus of people from Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia (in late 2010 and 2011), driven by the interrelated effects of severe drought and ongoing civil war, prompted the United Nations and the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR, 2012) to study the long-term negative impacts of climate change in the East and Horn of Africa. The East and the Horn of Africa is expected to be one of the regions that will be particularly exposed to the negative effects of climate change. Agricultural production and food security are likely to be seriously undermined. Citizens of countries in both East and Horn of Africa have particularly low capacities to cope and adapt to the projected trends, as they already face high levels of poverty and are repeatedly victims of violent conflict. The fact that states in the region often lack the resources to support citizens in times of crisis makes them even more vulnerable. This results in population movements. Human mobility is an important process that has been used to adapt to climate change. Climate trends and events not only have negative effects on agricultural production and food security, but also lead to a deterioration of social cohesion with the emergence of local conflicts over the management and use of natural resources. Alongside the implementation processes of the global climate agreement, the international community must also strengthen the resilience of societies and their members who are vulnerable and/or exposed to risks arising from climate change (Vitel 2015). 92 Machine Translated by Google 6. Summary and conclusions The National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change (ESPKA) has as its main objective the documentation of the necessity of forming an appropriate institutional and financial framework to support public and private adaptation actions to the effects of climate change. The international experience and the available information from the EU member states provide us with sufficient information for the reflection on the main pillars of the ESPKA: the analysis of climate risk and vulnerability of the Greek territory, the critical review of alternative adaptation measures in 15 sectors of interest, the presentation of the main assessment tools for adaptation investments and policies, the tools for integrating adaptation policy into wider policies, the international dimension of adaptation, the strengthening of adaptive capacity, the consultation of social partners on adaptation and finally the monitoring and review of adaptive policies. The general framework of the ESPKA must be made operational for the implementing bodies of the public and private sector. Functionality implies expertise, which in turn requires detailed information on spatial climate and targeted consultation with specific social partners. Continuous monitoring of the implementation of the strategy by creating a monitoring observatory and a special mechanism for scientific support of national/regional/ local efforts and adaptation actions with the preparation of appropriate indicators and tools is deemed particularly important. In addition to the monitoring observatory and the support mechanism, the next steps towards the implementation of the ESPCA should focus on: - expanding our knowledge and information base on climate impact issues, - in the connection of ESPKA with the existing framework of natural disaster management phone, - in the evaluation and prioritization of the measures proposed by the bodies, - to investigate the possibilities of financing the measures from national and international sources, - in the preparation of specialized scenarios of the Greek economy and its most vulnerable sectors, - acts in the integration of the above in specialized regional plans and roadmaps in specific areas of interest, - in the investigation of specific measures to strengthen the adaptive capacity of institutions and citizens, - in drawing up a revision and adaptation plan of the ESPKA. 93 Machine Translated by Google Bibliography Alexandrakis G., Karditsa A., Poulos S., Ghionis G., Kampanis N.A., 2010. 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Hydroschizophrenia, Hydrohegemony, Hydrodiplomacy, Diaulos Publications. Tzeferis, P. (2009), “The Mining/Metallurgical Activity in Greece” – Statistical Data 2007-2008, Mineral Wealth, 153, pp. 1-16. Ministry of Economy and Finance, General Secretariat of Investments and Development (2009). Guidelines on the Financial Analysis For the NSRF Operational Programs projects that generate revenue [Article 55 of Reg. (EC) 1083/2006]. Athens 2009. Ministry of Environment, Energy & Climate Change. National Strategy for Biodiversity, January 2014. http://www.ypeka.gr/Default.aspx?tabid=237&language=el-GR#biodiv 100 Machine Translated by Google Appendices APPENDIX 1: Members of the scientific writing team (EMEKA & TtE) Expedients: Areti Kontogianni, Associate Professor of Environmental Resource Management, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Western Macedonia Michael Skourtos, Professor of Environmental Economics, Agricultural University of Athens Author team: Theodora Antonakaki, Architect-Engineer, Scientific Secretary EMEKA, Bank of Greece Margarita Arianoutsou-Faraggitaki, Professor of Ecology, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens Dimosthenis Asimakopoulos, Professor of Environmental Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens Margarita Niki Asimakopoulou, Assistant Professor, Department of Physics, Department of Environmental Physics - Meteorology, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens Dr. Christos Giannakopoulos, Director of Research, National Observatory of Athens Dr. Georgios Yiannopoulos, Om. Professor of Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Ant. Member of the Academy of Athens Dimitris Damigos, Associate Professor, National Technical University of Athens Georgios Zervas, Professor at the Agricultural University of Athens Christos Zerefos, EMEKA Coordinator, Supervisor of the Atmospheric Physics and Climatology Research Center of the Academy of Athens Pantelis Kapros, Professor of Energy Economy, National Technical University of Athens Andreas Karamanos, Professor Emeritus of the Agricultural University of Athens Dr. Ioannis Kapsomenakis, Scientific Associate of the Atmospheric Physics and Climatology Research Center of the Academy of Athens Haris Kokkosis, Professor, University of Thessaly Elena Korka, Director General of Antiquities and Cultural Heritage, Ministry of Culture and Sports Vassiliki Manousi, Researcher, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Research Foundation (FEEM) Dr. Stavros Mavrogenis, Researcher of the European Center for Environmental Research and Training Evangelos Mitsakis, Dr. Civil Engineer – Transportation, Researcher 3, Institute of Sustainable Mobility and Transport Networks, National Center for Research and Technological Development Anastasios S. Nastis, Emeritus Professor of Forestry and Natural Environment, Aristotelion University of Thessaloniki Panagiotis Nastos, Professor of Climatology, Department of Geology and Geoenvironment, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens 101 Machine Translated by Google Polyxeni Nikolopoulou-Stamati, Professor of Environmental Pathological Anatomy, School of Medicine, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens Anastasios Xepapadeas, Professor of Economic Theory and Policy, Dean of the School of Economics, Athens University of Economics and Business Maria Papaioannou, Mathematician-Researcher, Laboratory of Energy Economy & Environment Models, National Technical University of Athens Dr. Konstantinos Papakonstantinou, Ichthyologist, former Director of the Institute of Marine Biological Resources, Hellenic Center for Marine Research Andreas Papandreou, Associate Professor, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens Dimitrios I. Papanikolaou, Professor of Geology, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens Sofronios Papoutsoglou, Emeritus Professor, Agricultural University of Athens Ekaterini-Sofia Parcinevelou, M.Sc. Geologist – Geoenvironmentalist, PhD Candidate, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens Seraphim E. Poulos, Professor of Oceanography and Physical Geography, National and Professional University of Athens Angeliki Poulos, Archaeologist, General Directorate of Antiquities and Cultural Heritage, Ministry of Culture and Sports Mattheos Santamouris, Professor, Department of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens Isaac D. Sabethai, Management Consultant, Bank of Greece Eftichios Sargetakis, Professor, University of Macedonia Charalambos Skoulikaris, Scientific Associate-Secretary of the UNESCO/International Network of Water-Environment Centers for the Balkans (DiDiKY PeB), Department of Civil Engineering, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki Sofia Spyropoulou, Archaeologist, Ministry of Culture and Sports Iraklis Stamos, Transportation Engineer, Research Associate EKETA-IMET Venetia-Maria Stavraki, Economist, Laboratory of Energy-Economy & Environment Models, National Technical University of Athens Georgios Stournaras, Emeritus Professor, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens Grigorios I. Tsaltas, Rector of Panteion University of Social and Political Sciences, Director of the European Center for Environmental Research and Training Vassiliki Tsiaousi, Responsible Sector "Biotic Resources and Management of Protected Areas", Goulandris Museum of Natural History - Hellenic Center for Wetland Habitats Maria A. Tsima, Laboratory of Energy-Economy & Environment Models, National Technical University of Athens Dr. Christos Tourkolias, Chemical Engineer Nikolaos M. Fillas, Researcher, Department of Biology, Department of Ecology and Taxonomy, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens Anastasia Christopoulou, Biologist, PhD, Department of Biology, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens 102 Machine Translated by Google Employees of the Department of Climate Change & Atmospheric Quality MINISTRY Batmanoglou Rebecca, Head of Administration Psychas Kyriakos, Head of the Climate Change Department Niavis Dimitris, employee of the Department of Climate Change APPENDIX 2: The costs of climate change and adaptation, in tables and diagrams (Source: EMEKA, 2011) 2.1 Annual impacts on GDP and welfare due to climate change Intensity of climate change Intensity of climate change of 2050 of 2100 B1 B2 A1B A'2 B1 B2 A1B A'2 Base year effects Percentage change -0,90 -1,56 -1,77 -2,03 -2,69 -4,03 -4,77 -6,50 in GDP Equivalent change in well-being, in millions of euros on -1.696 -2.831 -3.072 -3.409 -4.888 -7.638 -9.404 -14.207 an annual basis Effects on the final year of dynamic simulation Percentage change -0,90 -1,53 -1,74 -2,00 -2,67 -3,92 -4,57 -6,01 in GDP Equivalent change in well-being, in millions of euros on -2.963 -4.803 -5.144 -5.666 -8.391 -13.002 -16.018 -24.435 an annual basis 103 Machine Translated by Google 2.2 Total cumulative costs of climate change Cumulative cost (billion euros in 2008) Medium script (2 B1 B2 A1B A2 The C) Discount rate equal to 0% Period 2011 - 2050 Period 17 59 67 78 13 2051 - 2100 Period 2011 - 251 311 358 438 203 2100 268 371 425 516 216 Discount rate equal to 2% Period 2011 - 2050 Period 9 34 38 45 6 2051 - 2100 66 81 93 112 55 Period 2011 - 2100 75 115 131 157 61 2.3 Summary table of estimates of the direct costs of adaptation measures (In 2010 million euros, unless otherwise stated) the the 1 adaptation 2 adaptation Residual effects of climate change Sectors Adaptation measures phase, phase, 2025-2050 2050-2070 Costs for moving part of the road and rail network further The cost of maintaining the road from the coastline 3.300 - network due to rising temperatures is not avoided. Costs caused by sea level rise and Transportation extreme weather events are Expenditure to protect the land avoided. 184 276 on an annual transport network from flooding basis on an annual basis Expenditure on protection of coastal systems (excluding ports) 1.864 1.482 60-70% of the impacts of climate change Coastal are avoided. systems Costs for raising docks in ports 600 Expenditure on projects and Aquatic from interventions for stock restoration 701 annual basisA total cost of €390 42 is avoided on an subjects and rational use on an annual basis million. Most of the impacts on forest ecosystems 50 30 on an annual basis Forests Additional management costs are avoided. on an annual basis 104 Machine Translated by Google Expenditures for the improvement 80 46 of forest fire fighting on an annual basis on an annual basis Cost of protection works 4.700 2.800 Percentage increase in the cost of providing tourist services, 20-30% of tourism revenue losses are Tourism excluding labor costs 10% 10% avoided. Expenditure on irrigation works 72 42 Most of the affected on an annual basis and protection works on an annual basis in fishing is avoided. The decline in agricultural productivity is Agriculture Costs to promote improved set at 6% in 2050 (a 30% and fishing production practices and to improvement) and 15% in 2100 100 60 on an annual protect wetland systems (a 21% improvement). basis on an annual basis Cost of energy upgrading of Reduction of energy consumption for air Built building stock and development conditioning by 20% compared to 20.000 environment of green islands the No Action Scenario. In the analysis for the water resources sector, it is pointed out that this cost does not reflect the full cost of implementing this policy. However, in the absence of more data, this partial cost was used in the present analysis. 2.4 Total cost of the Adjustment Scenario for the Greek economy, according to the results of the GEM-E3 general equilibrium model Intensity Intensity Intensity of climate of climate of climate change in change in change by 2050 2070 2100 Percentage change in GDP Application of adaptation initial simulation year -0,92 -0,55 -0,07 measures only final year of simulation initial -1,10 -0,66 -0,08 Residual impacts due to climate year of simulation final year of -0,96 -2,16 -3,96 change simulation initial year of -0,97 -1,99 -3,59 Combining adaptation simulation -2,11 -3,02 -4,03 measures and climate impacts final simulation year -2,30 -2,96 -3,67 Change in base year GDP size, in 2008 million euros per year initial simulation year final -2.177 -1.303 -174 Application of adaptation measures only simulation year -3.249 -1.952 -250 initial simulation year -2.272 -5.125 -9.393 Residual impacts due to climate change final simulation year -2.863 -5.897 -10.646 105 Machine Translated by Google Combining adaptation initial simulation year -4.989 -7.156 -9.553 measures and climate impacts final simulation year -6.804 -8.764 -10.883 Equivalent change in base-year well-being, in 2008 million euros per year initial simulation year -857 -513 -72 Application of adaptation measures only final simulation year -1.689 -1.013 -135 initial simulation year final -1.132 -3.618 -7.246 Residual impacts due to climate change simulation year initial simulation -1.922 -6.136 -12.504 Combining adaptation year -2.278 -4.431 -7.311 measures and climate impacts final simulation year -4.056 -7.656 -12.627 106 Machine Translated by Google 2.5 Total annual cost to the Greek economy based on the Adjustment Scenario and the No Action Scenario, according to the results of the GEM-E3 general equilibrium model (Annual total cost in billion euros of 2008, expressed in terms of GDP size of the base year) 2.6 Cumulative cost for the Greek economy based on the Scenario of Adjustment and the No Action Scenario, according to the results of the GEM-E3 General Equilibrium Model in billion euros of 2008 Adjustment cost A2 without adjustment A2 with adjustment difference (No Action) (Customization Script) from Inaction discount rate equal to 0% Period 2011-2050 Period 78,9 85,7 -6,8 2051-2070 182,3 177,5 4,7 Period 2071-2100 439,4 314,4 125 Period 2011-2100 700,5 577,7 122,8 discount rate equal to 2% Period 2011-2050 40,5 43,6 -3 Period 2051-2070 65 63,8 1,2 Period 2071-2100 96,1 70 26,1 Period 2011-2100 201,6 177,3 24,3 107 Machine Translated by Google APPENDIX 3: Climatic data and simulation results This appendix presents the climate parameter of temperature, as studied by the Atmospheric Physics and Climatology Research Center of the Academy of Athens, for the purposes of drafting the National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change. Figures 3.1 (year), 3.2 (winter) and 3.3 (summer) that follow on the following pages show the average annual, winter and summer air temperature at 2 meters above the ground and in degrees Celsius (°C), for the time period 1961-2010 (reference period divided into the respective decades) as well as for the future decades: 2011-2020, 2021-2030 ... 2091-2100. Results are based on a set of 12 simulations with European Program Regional Climate Simulation Models (RCMs) ENSEMBLES (http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/), based on the A1B greenhouse gas emissions scenario and at a spatial resolution of 25 km x 25 km. More specifically, the results of the following 12 RCMs-AOGCMs simulations are analyzed: RCA3 (HadCM3Q), RM5.1 (ARPEGE), HIRHAM5 (ARPEGE), HIRHAM5 (ECHAM5), HIRHAM5 (BCM), CLM (Hadcm3Q0), RegCM3 (ECHAM5), RACMO2 (ECHAM5), REMO (ECHAM5), RCA (BCM), RCA (ECHAM5), RCA (HadCM3Q3). It is noted that in parentheses is the name of the GCM General Circulation Model whose calculations are used as input data when simulating each of the RCMs. In Table 3.1 there is information on the RCMs of the ENSEMBLES program selected in the present study. The regions studied are: - Epirus - Western Macedonia - Central Macedonia - Eastern Macedonia - Thrace - Western Greece - Thessaly - Central Greece - Attica - Peloponnese - Ionian - North Aegean - Southern Aegean Sea - Crete Key conclusions: - the average annual temperature will rise by up to 4.0 2100 C in the period 2091- The (compared to the period 1961-1990), - a greater rise in temperature is predicted in the continental regions compared to the island regions of Greece, - the temperature rise is predicted to be greater in summer and autumn and less in spring and winter. 108 Machine Translated by Google Table 3.1: The Regional Climate Models of the ENSEMBLES program. His acronym Development Institute Spatial Vertical RCM of the RCM Flat Analysis SMHI (Swedish Mete orological and Hydro C4IRCA3 0.22° x 0.22° 31 logical Institute, Swe den) CNRM (Centre National of Research CNRM-RM5.1 0.22° x 0.22° 31 Meteorological, France) DMI (Danish Meteoro logical DMI-HIRHAM5 Institute, Den mark) 0.22° x 0.22° 19 ETHZ (Swiss Federal ETHZ-CLM Institute of Technolo gy, 0.22° x 0.22° 32 Zurich, Switzerland) ICTP (The Abdus Salam International Centre for ICTP-REGCM3 0.22° x 0.22° 18 Theoretical Physics, Italy) KNMI (Royal Nether lands Meteorological KNMI-RACMO2 0.22° x 0.22° 40 Institute, the Nether lands) MPI (Max-Planck MPI-M-REMO Institute for Meteorol ogy, 0.22° x 0.22° 27 Germany) SMHI (Swedish Mete orological and Hydro SMIRCA 0.22° x 0.22° 24 logical Institute, Swe den) 109 Machine Translated by Google 3.1 Average Annual Temperature 110 Machine Translated by Google Figure 3.1: Estimation of the temporal evolution of the average annual temperature per year for each of the 13 regions of Greece and for Greece as a whole for the period 1961-2100 (mean value -bars- and standard deviation -error bars- 12 RCMs of the ENSEMBLES program, based on the emission scenario A1B). 111 Machine Translated by Google 3.2 Average Winter Temperature 112 Machine Translated by Google Figure 3.2: Estimation of the temporal evolution of the average winter temperature per decade for each of the 13 regions of Greece and for Greece as a whole for the period 1961-2100 (mean value -bars- and standard deviation -error bars- of 12 RCMs ENSEMBLES programme, based on the A1B emission scenario). 113 Machine Translated by Google 3.3 Average Summer Temperature 114 Machine Translated by Google Figure 3.3: Estimation of the temporal evolution of the average summer temperature per year for each of the 13 regions of Greece and for Greece as a whole for the period 1961-2100 (mean value -bars- and standard deviation -error bars- 12 RCMs of the ENSEMBLES program, based on the emission scenario A1B). 115